Bet on a high-scoring game between England and Switzerland in Saturday’s Euro 2024 quarterfinal

There is no team that has been under more pressure Euro 2024 than Gareth Southgate’s England.

Looking to end a 58-year trophy drought, the Three Lions came into Euro 2024 as the outright favorites and were expected to cruise into the latter stages of the tournament.

They’re one away from a semifinal, but it’s been anything but pretty from the English.

The Three Lions scored just two goals and went 1-2-0 (W-D-L) in the group stage, but they were re-installed as the tournament favorites thanks to an unbelievably soft draw that saw them play Slovakia in the Round of 16. But England made a mess of their encounter with Slovakia and needed a 95th-minute equalizer from Jude Bellingham to rescue their tournament.

England have played four matches against Serbia, Slovenia, Denmark and Slovakia and they have scored just three goals in regulation.

And it’s not as if they’ve been unlucky. England just isn’t creating anything going forward. The Three Lions have generated just 3.7 expected goals through four matches.

England backers will point to their defensive numbers being elite through four matches, but you have to wonder if that’s because of the strength of schedule. Switzerland aren’t world-beaters, but they’ll be the best attacking side England have faced to date by a decent margin.

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The Swiss have scored seven goals in four matches and have created 5.3 expected goals. What’s more is they put forth a terrific performance in a 1-1 draw against Germany in the group stage, showing they can punch up.

Switzerland’s defensive numbers are also quite solid, having allowed 3 goals on 4.3 expected goals. That’s not too far off of England.

The betting market is projecting this to be a tight, low-scoring affair and while it’s hard to argue with that logic, the prices correlated with that gamescript are starting to get out of hand.

This Switzerland attack has some bite to it and England has to find a way to start creating scoring chances, so don’t be surprised if they play with a little more risk to their game. They’re the more talented side in this matchup and should back themselves in a free-flowing contest.

Perhaps the best course of action is to zag while everyone else is zigging.

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