Bet on Italy to pull off slim victory against Spain in Euro 2024 matchup

Two storied nations in world football will meet again as Spain takes on Italy at the Veltins-Arena in Gelsenkirchen on Thursday in the group stage of the European Championship.

This will be their 11th time facing one another at a major tournament and the fifth-consecutive meeting at the Euros since 2008. Thus, there are a ton of interesting storylines to whet our appetite for this matchup.

Spain is a +120 favorite on the three-way moneyline following its 3-0 victory over Croatia in the group opener. However, Italy deserves plenty of respect as the current title holders, and the Azzurri will undoubtedly be buoyed by its head-to-head performances against Spain in this competition.

The two teams will take the field knowing Albania eked out a 2-2 draw against Croatia with a goal in the 95th minute. That result could significantly affect which teams advance out of Group B.

With Croatia and Albania already trailing in points and goal differential within the group, Spain and Italy could take a somewhat conservative approach in settling for a point.

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After more than a decade of disappointment, Spain ended its trophy drought by winning the 2023 UEFA Nations League. But before that, La Furia Roja had a four-year span (2008-2012) in which it won two European Championships (2008, 2012) in addition to a World Cup (2010).

Spain has a tremendous history in the Euros, tying with Germany for the most wins (three).

Despite having such a dominant result in its opener, Spain had less possession (46.7%-53.3%), fewer shot attempts (11-6) and the same number of shots on goal (5-5).

The Spaniards jumped all over Croatia with three first-half goals. However, a closer look reveals that Croatia’s expected goals (2.19) were actually higher than Spain’s (1.83).

Thus, Croatia deserved better than the 3-0 shutout, which could make Spain somewhat overvalued in this matchup against Italy.

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The Azzurri’s start to the Euros against Albania didn’t go as planned after conceding the fastest goal (23 seconds) in tournament history.

However, Italy leveled the game at the 11-minute mark on an Alessandro Bastoni header from the right side of the 6-yard box. Five minutes later, Italy went ahead on a right-footed strike from Nicolo Barella.

Italy dominated the game the rest of the way, as Albania didn’t even sniff a second attempt at a goal. The Italians won the possession battle (68.3%-31.7%) and registered 17 shot attempts with five on target.  Its expected goals tally of 1.60 was also better than Albania’s (0.48).

The head-to-head numbers are fascinating for this matchup, considering that Spain has won three of the last four meetings. However, Italy has just one loss in its last 10 matches (four wins, five draws) against Spain at major tournaments like the Euros or the World Cup.

Moreover, Spain has won the last two meetings against Italy, but it has never won three consecutive matches in this series.

Under new manager Luis de la Fuente, Spain could opt to play with less possession than in recent years. Croatia was the first team in 136 competitive matches to see more of the ball against Spain.

Breaking down an Italian defense is never easy, and that task could prove even more challenging if you don’t win the possession battle.

Therefore, I’d expect the Azzurri to get a result in this match with either a win or a draw..

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