The Netherlands to win and take more shots against Romania among best bets for Tuesday’s Euro 2024 matches

Tuesday is the final matchday of the Round of 16, as two teams look to advance to the 2024 UEFA European Football Championship quarterfinals.

After finishing ahead of Belgium, which entered the tournament as the favorite, Romania was the surprising winner in Group E. However, it’s worth noting that all four “E” teams ended the group stage with four points, resulting in a need for tiebreakers to determine the eventual winner.

In the early game on Tuesday, Romania will face the Netherlands, which finished third in Group D. The Netherlands’ third-place finish was due to a 3-2 loss at the hands of Austria, which went on to win the group.

Austria, which finished second in Group F behind Portugal, will then take on Turkey in the nightcap.

Both matchups offer plenty of intrigue, and we’ve put together two best bets to close out the Round of 16.

(Noon ET, FS1)

Romania got off to a flying start with a 3-0 win against Ukraine in its Group E opener. Two long-range efforts from Nicolae Stanciu and Razvan Marin gave the Tricolours a 2-0 advantage before Denis Dragus tapped in a Dennis Man pass inside the 6-yard box.

However, Romania managed just one goal in its next two matches, and you could argue the goal wasn’t deserved, considering it resulted from a controversial penalty.

In the final matchday of the group, German referee Daniel Siebert issued a free kick for a foul on Romania’s Ianis Hagi, which looked to occur just right outside the box. The Video Assistant Referee (VAR) intervened and recommended that Siebert award a penalty without even having to review the play for himself on the television monitor.

Romania was in a group that had the second-fewest goals (11) in the competition. And when they came up against a Belgian side with a bit more quality, the Romanians couldn’t get on the scoresheet after suffering a 2-0 loss.

These knockout rounds are all about surviving and advancing. It doesn’t have to be pretty; you just have to find a way to get over the line.

The Netherlands came through a much tougher group that involved France and Austria. That experience should help it overcome a Romanian side that went 24 years without winning a European competition.

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(3 p.m. ET, FOX Sports)

The Austrians have been the tournament’s biggest surprise, winning their final two matches in the group stage after a 1-0 loss to France following a Maximilian Wöber own goal.

Austria actually had the bulk of the possession (51.9%) and matched France with three shots on goal.

This was just the fourth time in Austria’s history that it reached the knockout stage of a major tournament, and much of the credit should go to manager Ralf Rangnick.

While some might have scoffed at Rangnick’s appointment in 2022, the 66-year-old German is 16-4-6 for Austria since taking the job.

Rangnick is widely regarded as the godfather of Gegenpressing, a style of play in which teams pressure their opponents to regain possession immediately after losing the ball.

That transformation in style has led Austria to become a much more possession-oriented team than we’ve seen in recent history.

After three games in group play, we’ve gained a pretty good account of these teams and their limitations.

The Netherlands came through a much tougher group, while Romania was fortunate to advance.

One option I like is to back the match winner to also finish with the most shots.

In the early match, a bet365 parlay that pairs the Netherlands to win on the three-way moneyline and finish with more shots reduces our odds from -250 to -175.

In the late game, we can get even better odds at +120, with Austria advancing and finishing with more shots.

Turkey’s 2-1 victory over Czechia had plenty to do with an Antonín Barák red card in the 20th minute.

The Czechians (1.53) had a better expected-goal mark than Turkey (1.46) despite playing with 10 men for much of the game.

European football doesn’t often allow underdogs to write their own script, as the better teams generally advance in these competitions. The true challenge lies in finding a wager that still gives us a chance to cash at a decent price.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.