Bet on Kelsey Plum’s scoring prop as the Aces host Caitlin Clark’s Fever

On Tuesday night in Las Vegas, Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever face the Aces for the second time this season while wrapping up a five-game road trip.

Indiana is coming off a thrilling 88-82 win over Phoenix after trailing by as many as 15 points in the second half and seven points with under four minutes remaining in the fourth quarter.

The victory snapped a two-game losing streak while giving Indiana a half-game lead over Chicago for the eighth and final playoff spot. As for the Aces, they’ve started to find their groove following a 6-6 start.

Las Vegas has won four straight games to coincide with the return of five-time All-Star Chelsea Gray from a foot injury.

The Aces are as high as a -13.5-point favorite, but the total has drawn plenty of attention after being bet up from 170.5 to 178.5. While I agree with the move, it’s too late to join the party at the current number.

However, whenever the total is high, bettors can still find some correlated value by targeting the player props market.

Odds via DraftKings

The Fever overcame a brutal schedule to begin the season, with seven of their first nine games against teams with a combined 54-19 record (Liberty, Sun, Storm and Aces). It’s unsurprising Indiana went just 1-8 during that stretch.

Since then, the Fever have gone 7-4 while playing a softer schedule with eight games against teams below .500. It’s become clear they struggle when they have to step up in class against better competition.

Indiana remains the worst defensive team in the WNBA, allowing 108.9 points per 100 possessions, while Las Vegas is the second-best offensive team with a 106.8 rating.

Based on those numbers, it’s easy to see why the Aces deserve to be such heavy favorites in this matchup.

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It’s difficult to explain why the Aces looked like a shell of themselves to start the campaign. After all, Las Vegas returned its core players from a team that won a second-straight WNBA title.

Even coach Becky Hammon couldn’t quite put her finger on what ailed her team early on. In her post-game news conference following a loss to Los Angeles, Hammon told reporters she could barely recognize her players.

“We’re one team in Minnesota,” Hammon said. “We’re another team in Atlanta. We’re one team in Dallas; we’re another team against Seattle.”

The reality is the rest of the league has caught up with the Aces in terms of quality. While Las Vegas remains a tremendous offensive team, its rating is 6.2 points lower than last year’s.

However, that number should improve now that Gray is back in the fold. Since her return, the Aces’ offensive rating has increased to 111.0 in their last four games. If anything, Gray’s presence has helped Las Vegas get one step closer to the form it had last season.

Hammon has helped ignite a three-point revolution in the WNBA as five teams are averaging nine or more 3-point field goals per game. In the previous year, only two teams finished the season with nine or more 3-pointers.

Indiana has one of the worst perimeter defenses in the league, ranking 10th in opponent 3-point field goal percentage (35.8%). One player who can benefit from Indiana’s poor perimeter play is the Aces Kelsey Plum.

Plum is a career 38.8% 3-point shooter, but she’s coming off a 0-4 performance in her last outing against Washington, finishing with just two points on 1-of-8 shooting in 35 minutes. However, despite her poor shooting, Plum was still productive by dishing out eight assists.

Look for Plum to be more selfish in finding her shot against a Fever team that offers little defensive resistance. She has scored 15 or fewer points on three occasions this season, and twice she responded with 18 or more in her following game.

This game is begging for a big performance from Plum, and with her points prop available at 17.5, the over is well worth a look.

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