Final Four odds: UConn solidly favored to win fifth national championship

Chaos was projected for the 2023 NCAA Tournament long before it tipped off. And chaos is precisely what we got.

So much so that a team that was as high as an 80-to-1 long shot to win the 2023 national title when the season began in November is now the odds-on favorite to win it all.

And if that favorite fails to meet oddsmakers’ expectations in Houston, site of this year’s Final Four?

Then one of the other three Final Four participants whose national championship odds ranged from 80-to-1 to 250-to-1 as recently as February 1 will be cutting down the nets.

With the Final Four set, here’s a look at updated national championship odds, as well as odds for Saturday’s impossible-to-believe matchups in Houston.

Odds updated as of 10:30 p.m. ET on March 26.

A No. 4 seed from the Big East Conference. A No. 5 seed from the ACC. Another No. 5 seed from the Mountain West Conference. And a No. 9 seed from the Sun Belt Conference.

That’s what remains from the 68-team NCAA Tournament field that was unveiled exactly two weeks ago.

The highest of those remaining seeds — No. 4 UConn — is now the clear-cut favorite to win it all after ripping through the West Region with four double-digit victories. The last one: An 82-54 destruction of No. 3 seed Gonzaga in Saturday’s regional final in Las Vegas

The fact the Huskies (29-8, 25-12 ATS) are -125 to win their fifth national championship (all since 1999) is stunning considering where they stood in college basketball’s 2023 futures market less than five months ago.

Not long after Kansas won the 2022 national championship last April, BetMGM opened UConn at +6600 to win this year’s title. Just how big of a long shot was coach Dan Hurley’s squad at that time? More than two dozen teams opened with shorter odds at BetMGM.

Then in early November, shortly after the Big East’s coaches picked them to finish fourth in their own league, the Huskies’ national championship odds stretched to +8000.

Even after crushing No. 14 seed Iona 87-63 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on March 17, UConn was still +1600 at BetMGM to win the national championship.

However, those odds swiftly began to take a nosedive with each successive March Madness victory. The Huskies fell to +900 after a 70-55 second-round win over No. 5 seed Saint Mary’s; +500 after an 88-65 rout of No. 8 Arkansas in the Sweet 16; and +120 after Saturday’s Elite Eight blowout of Gonzaga.

UConn then flipped to the odds-on favorite late Sunday afternoon after No. 5 seed Miami overcame a double-digit second-half deficit and knocked out No. 2 Texas 88-81 in the Midwest Region final.

Miami (29-7, 22-14 ATS) actually had shorter national championship odds at BetMGM (+5000) than UConn when the futures market opened a year ago. But the Hurricanes entered February as high as +8000 to win the school’s first men’s basketball title.

Now Miami, which will face the Huskies in Saturday’s second Final Four game, is the +500 third choice at BetMGM.

In between UConn and Miami is San Diego State. The fifth-seeded Aztecs (31-6, 19-17 ATS) rallied past No. 6 Creighton 57-56 on Sunday to take the South Region.

San Diego State, which had never advanced past the Sweet 16 in program history prior to Thursday, is +360 to win it all at both BetMGM and FanDuel and +400 at Caesars Sportsbook.

Like Miami, the Aztecs were +8000 long shots on Feb. 1 and moved out to +10000 as of March 1. Even after Thursday’s stunning Sweet 16 upset of No. 1 overall seed Alabama, SDSU was still +1000 to win the title at BetMGM.

Of course, none of this year’s Final Four entrants are more surprising than Florida Atlantic.

The ninth-seeded Owls pulled off three upsets — over No 8 Memphis in the first round, No. 4 Tennessee in the Sweet 16 and No. 3 Kansas State in the Elite Eight — to win the East Region.

FAU (34-3, 24-11-1 ATS) had only reached the NCAA Tournament once in school history — it went one-and-done in 2001.

Now, the Owls, whose national title odds opened at 250-to-1 on February 1, are down to +600 at BetMGM, Caesars and FanDuel.

After its somewhat controversial win over Creighton on Sunday, San Diego State opened as a modest 1.5-point favorite over FAU in Saturday’s first Final Four game.

The Aztecs are -125 on the moneyline at both BetMGM and Caesars, with the Owls +105 on the take-back. The consensus total is 131.5 points, which might seem low at first glance — until realizing San Diego State has stayed Under the total in 12 straight games.

In the Final Four nightcap, UConn is a much more substantial favorite over Miami. The Huskies are laying 5.5 points at BetMGM and FanDuel, even though the Hurricanes improved to 9-1 ATS as an underdog with Sunday’s upset of Texas.

At BetMGM, the moneyline is priced at UConn -250/Miami +190. The Over/Under is significantly higher than San Diego State-FAU, as it’s ranging from 149 to 149.5.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.