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Final Four prediction: Will Miami hang with mighty UConn in Houston?

The Hurricanes have delivered as an underdog all season long. Bet on them to do it again Saturday

The Miami Hurricanes, who upset three straight NCAA Tournament opponents to reach their first Final Four, are 9-1 ATS as an underdog this season with seven outright victories. Miami once again is catching points in Saturday’s Final Four battle with UConn. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
The Miami Hurricanes, who upset three straight NCAA Tournament opponents to reach their first Final Four, are 9-1 ATS as an underdog this season with seven outright victories. Miami once again is catching points in Saturday’s Final Four battle with UConn. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)Read moreJamie Squire / Getty Images

The Miami Hurricanes’ mindset on the road to the first Final Four in school history: No matter the adversity, nobody is beating us.

The UConn Huskies’ mindset on the road to their sixth Final Four, all since 1999: No matter the opponent, nobody is competing with us.

So Saturday’s national semifinal nightcap at NRG Stadium in Houston is a classic clash of immovable object vs. irresistible force. It’s also a clash that is extremely tricky to handicap.

Our conclusion on this Miami vs. UConn showdown: It’s incredibly difficult to not lay a handful of points with a team that’s won all 15 of its nonconference games — including four NCAA Tournament contests — by double digits.

But it’s even more difficult not to take a handful of points with a team that’s near perfect as an underdog this season — one riding a wave of three consecutive March Madness upsets.

Odds updated as of 5:15 p.m. ET on March 31.

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Miami vs. UConn Prediction

  1. Miami +5.5 (at BetMGM)

Miami vs. UConn Prediction: Analysis

There’s no way to sugarcoat it: We flat-out blew it with our Elite Eight recommendation of Texas over Miami.

After successfully riding the fifth-seeded Hurricanes in the first three games of the NCAA Tournament — wins over No. 12 Drake (63-56), No. 4 Indiana and No. 1 Houston (89-75) — we went the other way in Sunday’s Midwest Region final against No. 2 Texas.

It looked like the right call for about three-fourths of the contest, as the Longhorns were firmly in control and had a 12-point lead with roughly 10 minutes to play.

But the refuse-to-lose Hurricanes did just that: They simply refused to lose.

As was the case in its first-round game against Drake — which required a game-ending 16-1 run over the final six minutes — Miami woke up against Texas in the nick of time at both ends of the court.

When it was over, the Hurricanes had turned a 67-55 deficit with 10:04 remaining into an 88-81 Final Four-clinching victory.

» READ MORE: Final Four odds: UConn solidly favored to win fifth national championship

As usual, it was a total team effort for Miami, as all five starters scored in double figures. This time, guard Jordan Miller was the hero, as he went 7-for-7 from the field, 13-for-13 from the foul line and finished with a game-high 27 points.

The stunning upset of Texas as a 3.5-point underdog followed the Hurricanes’ equally stunning 14-point Sweet 16 win over top-seed Houston as a 7.5-point underdog. And that followed a 16-point blowout of Indiana as a 1.5-point underdog in the Round of 32.

But wait, it gets better: Since Feb. 4, Miami has taken the court seven times as an underdog and walked off the court with six outright victories.

The only exception was an 85-78 loss to Duke as a 2.5-point pup in the ACC Tournament championship game. It was a game in which the Canes lost 6-foot-7 forward/double-double machine Norchad Omier to a sprained ankle one minute into the action. Omier never returned.

The seven-point loss to the Blue Devils? It is Miami’s second-largest margin of defeat this season and largest since Maryland drubbed the Canes 88-70 on a neutral court — way back on Nov. 20.

The Hurricanes’ only other blemishes this season — at Georgia Tech, at North Carolina State in overtime, at Duke, at Pittsburgh and versus Florida State — were by a combined 14 points. And Miami cashed as an underdog in two of those contests (at Duke and at N.C. State).

In summary, coach Jim Larrañaga’s troops are 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS as an underdog; four of their seven losses were by 3 points or fewer; two others were by 6 and 7 points; and they’ve suffered just one double-digit defeat all year.

Yes, we know about UConn’s thoroughly dominant 4-0 SU and ATS run to the West Region championship. It’s a run that included a 24-point win over No. 11 seed Iona, a 15-point win over No. 5 St. Mary’s, a 23-point win over No. 8 Arkansas and a 28-point thrashing of No. 3 Gonzaga.

We also know that the Huskies’ supreme talent and athleticism is matched only by their depth and versatility. And we know they’re red-hot, going 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS since Jan. 31.

But here’s what else we know: UConn was involved in just two close games during that 15-game stretch. And the Huskies lost them both — 56-53 at Creighton and 70-68 to Marquette in the Big East Tournament.

Well, we expect the Huskies to finally get tested again Saturday night against a perpetually underrated opponent that simply will not quit, no matter the circumstances.

So if you’re going to give us 5.5 points with such an opponent — one that, again, took down a No. 4, No. 1 and No. 2 seed in successive games to reach this point — we’re not passing them up.

Not this time.

Miami vs. UConn Odds (via BetMGM):

  1. Point spread: Miami (+5.5) vs. UConn (-5.5)

  2. Moneyline: Miami (+200) vs. UConn (-250)

  3. Total: 149.5 points

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