Rory McIlroy to win the Scottish Open among the best bets to place ahead of the tournament

After an outrageously low-scoring leaderboard at TPC Deere Run last week, including a 28-under outing from Davis Thompson, the PGA Tour heads to The Renaissance Club in Scotland for the Genesis Scottish Open.

Many of the world’s best golfers will tee it up on Thursday to hone their respective games before competing in The Open next week.

Unsurprisingly, the world’s second-ranked player and reigning champion, Rory McIlroy, is favored to repeat, with Scottie Scheffler saving his energy for The Open.

Will McIlroy go back-to-back against a highly competitive field, which includes Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg and several other elite golfers, or will we see a new champion?

Like any course in Scotland, the difficulty for golfers this week will be primarily tied to the weather conditions.

The forecast calls for scattered showers on three of the four days, but the wind is expected to only blow between 6-10 mph, which is much more modest than the near-40 mph gusts golfers experienced during the final round of the Scottish Open last year.

Since wind is unlikely to play a significant factor, we can expect big hitters like McIlroy, Min Woo Lee, Wyndham Clark and Byeong Hun An to seek an advantage off the tee.

Here are my two best bets for the Genesis Scottish Open.

» READ MORE: Byeong-hun An among the top long shots to bet ahead of the 2024 Scottish Open

Unless we can “Being John Malkovich” our way inside McIlroy’s head, we cannot know his mental state now, making this play a bit riskier than usual.

McIlroy took some time off after his grueling loss at the U.S. Open. He had been putting so much pressure on himself to end his major championship drought that it undoubtedly contributed to his meltdown at Pinehurst No. 2.

Still, his strengths fit The Renaissance Club course like a glove. It is the type of course he grew up playing, giving him an advantage over the non-UK golfers.

McIlroy ranks first in driving distance, 28th in driving accuracy and 35th in shots gained in putting. Except for two of the last three holes on Sunday at Pinehurst, he has been sensational with the putter inside of 10 feet this season.

If McIlroy is dialed in with his short irons and can erase the memory of his U.S. Open collapse, he has a terrific shot at being atop the leaderboard on Sunday.

Fleetwood is long overdue to secure his first PGA Tour win, and there is no better place for him to accomplish that feat than at The Renaissance Club, a course where he has logged a T4 and a T6 in his past two outings.

Fleetwood has found success not just at The Renaissance Club, though. He has flourished on most links courses in the UK over the past few seasons, finishing T10 at The Open (Royal Liverpool GC) last year, T4 at The Open (St. Andrews Links – Old Course) in 2022, and second at The Open (Royal Portrush GC) in the 2019.

Pairing history with recent outings, Fleetwood has had some strong finishes since his T7 performance at Valero in early April; he has finished T26 or better in eight of his past nine tournaments.

This could be the week that makes him a first-time PGA Tour winner.

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