Fade Georgia’s college football win totals during the 2024 season, despite being title favorites

While Georgia finished 13-1 last season, the Bulldogs missed the College Football Playoff after losing to Alabama in the SEC title game. In the Orange Bowl, Georgia capped off its season with a 63-3 beatdown of a Florida State team missing most of its starters because of opt-outs.

As we look ahead to the 2024 season, Georgia is poised to return to national championship contention. At +300 on DraftKings, the Bulldogs are the favorites to win the title this year, and they’re priced at +200 as the favorites to win the SEC.

Let’s take a look at the roster and schedule to find out if there’s any value for Georgia in the futures markets.

2024 Transfers and Returning Production (TARP): +5 offense, +5 defense, +10 net

Key additions: RB Trevor Etienne (Florida), WR Colbie Young (Miami), TE Benjamin Yurosek (Stanford), CB Ellis Robinson IV (freshman), S KJ Bolden (freshman)

Key losses: RB Daijun Edwards, WR Ladd McConkey, TE Brock Bowers, OT Amarius Mims, C Sedrick Van Pran, CB Kamari Lassiter, S Tykee Smith, S Javon Bullard

Mike Bobo took the reins as the offensive coordinator last season, and all Georgia did was score the fifth-most points in the country (40.1 per game).

Carson Beck was PFF’s fourth-highest-graded quarterback in the Power Five last year, and he ranked second with an adjusted completion rate of 80.6%. He’s a frontrunner for the Heisman trophy this year, currently priced at +750 on BetMGM.

The Bulldogs lost some key contributors to the NFL, including their leading rusher, Daijun Edwards, and leading receiver, Brock Bowers. However, the skill group might be even better this season, especially with the transfer addition of Trevor Etienne, who ran for nearly 1,500 yards and 14 touchdowns over the last two years at Florida. Also, keep an eye on Colbie Young, a wide receiver transfer from Miami with impressive contested-catch ability.

» READ MORE: Big Ten futures: Back Penn State to eclipse their win total with new offensive coordinator

Georgia’s defense ranked fifth in the country in scoring and first on third downs last year. Plenty of star power remains, especially with the return of former five-star recruit Mykel Williams, a projected first-round pick in next year’s NFL draft. Linebacker Smael Mondon Jr. also returns after tallying 144 tackles over the last two seasons.

The Bulldogs lost three of their top five players in total snaps in the secondary from last season, but safety Malaki Starks is a projected preseason All-American. Five-star freshmen Ellis Robinson IV and KJ Bolden should see opportunities to make an immediate impact.

Georgia opens its season with an exciting neutral-site game against Clemson in Atlanta. The Bulldogs are early 13.5-point favorites. Georgia should be 3-0 in non-conference play, with games against Tennessee Tech and UMass expected to be blowouts.

The conference schedule is loaded with potential pitfalls, however. Road games against Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss will all present meaningful challenges. The Crimson Tide shouldn’t be counted out despite losing Nick Saban, as Kalen DeBoer has a stellar track record. Texas is poised for a seamless transition to the SEC with Steve Sarkisian at the helm. Ole Miss had the top transfer class in the country and returns tons of talent.

However, it’s challenging to imagine Georgia losing a game at home this season. The most formidable home opponent is likely Tennessee, but throwing Nico Iamaleava to the wolves in his first season as the Vols’ starting quarterback comes with a wide range of potential outcomes.

Georgia’s win total projection is 10.5, which is a fair price given the three challenging road games against Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss. The Bulldogs could be double-digit favorites every other week, so their season comes down to those three matchups.

The Bulldogs are priced at the top of the market, making it difficult to find much value in their futures for the SEC title or national championship. They can easily create a case for having the best roster in the country, but their schedule also presents significant challenges.

If I place any futures bet on Georgia now, it’s under 10.5 wins at plus money.

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