Open Championship picks: Back these long shots at Royal Liverpool this week

The year’s final major — the 2023 Open Championship — is set to tee off early on Thursday morning (1:35 a.m. ET) at Royal Liverpool Golf Club in Hoylake, Merseyside.

This marks the third time since 1967 that Royal Liverpool has hosted the Open, with Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy lifting the Claret Jug in 2006 and 2014, respectively.

Royal Liverpool has all the makings of a classic Open Championship course, but there does seem to be a clear path to success at this track: Accuracy is king. Like any other links-style course, massive peril looms as soon as the ball leaves the fairway which is why Woods decided to keep his driver in its holster for most of his victory here in 2006.

Scottie Scheffler is currently your (slight) betting favorite at +700, but it’s realistically a co-favorite situation with McIlroy, fresh off his Scottish Open victory, at +800. Jon Rahm, who was last seen missing the weekend at the Travelers Championship, is the third-favorite at +1300. Brooks Koepka (+1800) is the only other player under +2000 at DraftKings.

You don’t need me to tell you that any of those four, or any of the next 15 to 20 players after them have a legitimate chance at winning this week, so instead we’ll take a look at some massive prices down the board that are worth circling in outright markets, placement bets, DFS contests or your local bar pool.

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And keep in mind, although the last two winners of the Open Championship came from near the top of the board — Cam Smith was +2000 last year and Collin Morikawa went off at +3500 the year before — this tournament has been a happy hunting ground for long shots in the past.

Shane Lowry (2018) and Zach Johnson (2015) were both +8000 when they won the Open Championship, while Darren Clarke (2011) was +15000, Louis Oosthuizen (2010) was +20000 and Stewart Cink (2009) was +12500 in their jug-lifting years. Heck, there was a 300/1 winner at the Open back in 2004 when Ben Curtis shocked the world.

With that in mind, here are a few longshot picks worth considering at the 2023 British Open.

We could keep this one simple and just note that Kurt Kitayama is the No. 25 golfer in the world right now per the Official Golf World Rankings. Those rankings are far from perfect, but it’s still worth considering that a top-25 player in the world is hanging out at +25000. It doesn’t stop there, though. Kitayama also has a win this year against an elite field on a grueling course and he’s also bagged a T4 finish at a major. Finally, Kitayama also can fall back on some positive experience on links-style courses in the recent past — he was a runner-up at the 2022 Scottish Open. Not too shabby.

OK, time to take a couple of massive leaps starting with Brendon Todd. It’s been quite some time since Todd has lifted a trophy — he won back-to-back events in Nov. 2019 — but he’s coming off a T2 showing at the John Deere Classic two weeks ago. That event is very, very different from the Open, but nevertheless it shows that Todd is in good form.

That’s good news because Royal Liverpool should be a perfect fit for an in-form Todd. He will never be mistaken for a bomber off the tee, but there are few players on Tour that are more consistent off the tee than the 37-year-old from Pittsburgh. Todd is not the most exhilarating player in the field, but he’s consistent and has good stats on, and around, the green this year to go along with his precision.

It was not that long ago that Abraham Ancer was considered an ascending player on the PGA Tour. The 32-year-old Mexican was showing well at majors, he was regularly contending at big tournaments and he flashed a skillset that should have made him one of the more consistent players on the PGA Tour. But Ancer never really grabbed hold of his opportunities and things have quieted down around the Mexican since his move to LIV Golf.

Nonetheless, Ancer remains a talented player who should have the requisite accuracy off the tee needed to contend here. Additionally, Ancer has flashed some decent form of late — he’s got back-to-back top-20 finishes on LIV — and was T11 at the 2022 Open Championship. There’s more than enough here for a play at 500/1.

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