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With many top players overseas, back this long shot to win the PGA Tour’s Barbasol Championship this week

A wide-open field at the Barbasol Championship means there are a lot of long shots worth backing this week.

Satoshi Kodaira of Japan plays his shot from the 14th tee during the first round of the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run on July 06, 2023 in Silvis, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Satoshi Kodaira of Japan plays his shot from the 14th tee during the first round of the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run on July 06, 2023 in Silvis, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)Read moreMichael Reaves / Getty Images
    by Tony Sartori, Action Network
    Published 

With last week’s John Deere Classic in the rear-view mirror, we now look forward to this week’s Barbasol Championship in Nicholasville, Kentucky. Serving as an alternate event to the Genesis Scottish Open, the Barbasol Championship is a co-sanctioned event between the PGA TOUR and European Tour.

The Championship Course at Keene Trace Golf Club will host this event, which it has done annually since 2018. Keene Trace Golf Club is a par-72, 7,328-yard track (yardage subject to change) designed by Arthur Hills that benefits strong ball strikers players and those who excel on bentgrass greens.

Looking at the top of previous leaderboards, the greatest predictor of success at this course is strokes gained tee to green.

Barbasol Championship prediction: Satoshi Kodaira to win (+11000 via FanDuel)

A good longshot option to target this week is Satoshi Kodaira, who currently sits at 110/1 via FanDuel. Simply put, this price is far too long on a guy who is one of the best iron players in this tournament.

On TOUR this season, Kodaira ranks 65th in strokes gained tee to green, 34th in strokes gained on approach and 41st in greens in regulation percentage. This strong iron play has led to Kodaira making the cut in each of his past four tournaments, granted he has failed to finish inside the Top 35 in any of those outings.

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But, that is why we are catching his price at 110/1, even against a very weak field. His inconsistent performance on bentgrass greens is the biggest concern in backing Kodaira this week.

He lost -1.82 strokes gained putting at last week’s John Deere Classic, but he also gained +1.33 strokes putting at the AT&T Byron Nelson. Both of those tournaments were contested on bentgrass greens, and if we catch a performance similar to the latter, then it would not be shocking if Kodaira is in contention come Sunday afternoon.

In fact, he has made the cut in all three of his career appearances at Keene Trace Golf Club, including his T20 finish in 2021.

The bet: Satoshi Kodaira Outright Winner (+11000 via FanDuel)

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