Bet on the Phillies to jump out to early lead in series opener against Guardians

The Phillies return to Citizens Bank Park to take on the Guardians after a 2-4 road trip. While it hasn’t been an optimal start for the Phillies coming out of the All-Star break, they can certainly put things right in front of their home fans.

As for the Guardians, it’s almost been all or nothing for a team that failed to score a run in four of its last 10 games.

Considering that these are two teams with the best records in their leagues, there should be plenty of excitement heading into this series.

Philadelphia has dominated at home, boasting an MLB-best 37-16 mark. Thus, it’s no surprise that the Phillies are heavy favorites with odds as high as -180. As a result, we’ll need to be a bit creative in finding odds that give us a better price.

Odds via DraftKings

Ben Lively (8-6) will make his 18th start for the Guardians. He’s one of two Cleveland starters with a sub-four ERA (3.57) while pitching 10 or more games.

With a record of 61-41, you’d probably expect the Guardians to have one of the best starting pitching staffs. Yet, their starting rotation has a 4.51 ERA, which ranks 25th in the league.

As good as Lively’s been this season, there are some worrying signs that regression might be around the corner. His 4.48 FIP is almost a full run higher than his ERA.

Cleveland is Lively’s fourth different stop in the big leagues over a six-year career while posting a 16-23 record and a 4.59 ERA. While it’s possible he’s become a better pitcher at 32, his advanced numbers are more likely to contradict that assessment.

Hitters’ average exit velocity against Lively is 91 mph, the highest in his career despite this being his best season.

His biggest challenge will be sustaining this level of success while continuing to give up hard-hit balls.

» READ MORE: Bet on the Phillies to finish with the best record in the MLB by season’s end

Philadelphia will turn to Crisotpher Sánchez to make his 20th start of the year. The southpaw received his first All-Star selection this season and is 7-5 with a 2.97 ERA. However, his 2.64 FIP would suggest that he’s outperformed his traditional metrics.

Sánchez does a tremendous job pitching to contact, as his 2.97 ratio of ground balls to fly balls is the second-best in the majors.

By working quickly and keeping the ball on the ground, Sánchez limits the opposing teams’ opportunities to put together big rallies.

In high-leverage spots with runners in scoring position, batters are hitting just .194 with a .246 weighted on-base average (wOBA). Considering the recent power outage in the Guardians lineup, those numbers could be particularly devastating.

Sánchez will likely continue to feature his sinker against the Guardians, which he throws 48% of the time – more than any other pitch in his arsenal.

It’s worth noting that Cleveland batters rank 21st against the sinker while producing 7.7 runs below the league average.

Phillies pitchers deserve a ton of credit for their ability to perform effectively at home despite Citizens Bank being more of a hitters’ park. Collectively, both pitchers and hitters have performed exceptionally well at home for the Phillies.

With CBP essentially a nightmare for opposing teams, Lively could particularly struggle given his 4.27 ERA on the road vs. 2.66 at home.

Although Philadelphia’s roster has only 11 plate appearances against Lively, their .286 average and .578 wOBA bodes well for this matchup. Moreover, the Phillies have been exceptional in getting out to fast starts as home favorites when Sánchez is on the mound.

According to our Action Labs database, in his 10 starts this season, Philadelphia is 6-1-3 (85.7%) against the five-inning run line.

Look for the Phillies to have the edge in this matchup against Lively, who is potentially vulnerable to having a shaky start away from home.

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