Bet on these four players to reach semifinals of the 2024 Home Run Derby, including Pete Alonso

The Texas Rangers will host the MLB All-Star Game for the second time in its history and first since relocating to Globe Life Field in 2020.

But before we get to Tuesday’s 94th edition of the Midsummer Classic, baseball fans can whet their appetite with the Home Run Derby on Monday night.

Two-time winner Pete Alonso headlines a list of eight players who will take part in the derby. While Alonso has participated in each of the last five competitions, he’ll have to adjust to a new format change instituted by the MLB.

Odds via DraftKings

The first round will no longer consist of a head-to-head matchup between players. Instead, the four players with the most home runs will move on to the semifinals.

The head–to–head format will return in the semifinals, with the players seeded based on the number of home runs they hit in the first round. If there is a tie, the player with the longest home run will get the higher seed.

Each player will have three minutes in each of the first two rounds while facing a maximum of 40 pitches when at the plate.

The competition will continue to feature a bonus period at the end of each round and one 45-second timeout. However, the bonus period will not feature a time restriction. Instead, the players’ at-bats will continue until they record a third out or a batted ball that doesn’t clear the fence for a home run.

Players can gain an extra out during this bonus period if they hit a home run that travels 425 feet or more.

A 60-second swing-off will break any ties during the semifinal or final round, which wouldn’t include any timeouts for the players.

Overall, the decision to tweak the format is primarily due to the criticisms from past participants, who felt the event had become somewhat exhausting and had an increased potential for injury, given its frenetic pace.

It’ll be interesting to see if these changes benefit the purer home run hitters or give the underdogs a better chance to win the competition.

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Aside from Baltimore’s left-handed hitting Gunnar Henderson and Cleveland’s switch-hitting José Ramírez, six of the eight participants in this year’s derby are righties.

But while the dimensions of Globe Life Field seem fairly even, MLB’s Statcast Park Factors suggest that right-handers hit 9% more home runs than lefties.

However, Henderson sits atop the field in multiple key categories, such as home runs (28), bat speed (75.8 mph), fast swing rate (61.4%) or swings that reach 75 mph or higher and a 23.3% blast rate, which is a player’s ability to square up a ball and attain at least 80% of the maximum possible exit velocity.

Henderson’s 104.1 mph average on 50% of his hardest-hit balls (EV50) is also the best among the eight competitors.

Bobby Witt Jr. is another player who ranks in the top four of many of the critical metrics outlined above. Although the Kansas City shortstop has only 16 home runs on the year, he’s second in blasts (20.9%) and EV50 (104.0 mph) and third in bat speed (74.6 mph) and fast swing rate (48.7%).

Witt also has the highest average home run distance (418 feet) and longest home run of the year (468 feet).

Atlanta’s Marcell Ozuna ranks in the top four of most significant categories except maximum exit velocity, where he’s fifth at114.6 mph. The designated hitter is second in average home run distance (409 feet) and longest home run (446 feet), third in blasts (20.5%) and EV50 (103.7 mph), and fourth in bat speed (74.2 mph) and fast swing rate (43.9%).

Ramírez is a player who probably won’t get much attention from bettors, considering he ranks last in five categories: bat speed (71.4 mph), fast swing (18.1%), blasts (15.5%), EV50 (99.9 mph) and average home run distance (388 feet).

However, the Cleveland third baseman does rank second with a maximum exit velocity of 116.6 mph. Moreover, MLB’s Statcast Park Factors suggests that his career mark of 233 home runs would have jumped to 273 had he played all his games at Globe Life Field.

The most intriguing way to approach this derby is to target the four players mentioned above, along with Alonso, who clearly has the experience to go deep into the competition.

Given the uncertainty of how the players will respond to the format changes, there’s less value in trying to pick a winner. But if you’re looking for action, you might want to try to pick the four players who will advance to the semifinal round.

This option is available at DraftKings and comes with some decent odds.

A combination of Alonso, Henderson, Witt and Ozuna is available at +1100. And If we replace Ozuna with Ramírez, our odds jump to +2200.

I recommend swinging for the fences with a half-unit play on both options.

Best bets to reach semifinals

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