Jaguars vs. Chiefs prediction: Bet on Kansas City to cruise to blowout win

The Kansas City Chiefs went 14-3 this season, tied with the Eagles for the NFL’s best record.

The Chiefs have tasted defeat just once since mid-October. Their three losses were by a combined 10 points. They have an all-world quarterback who soon will win his second NFL MVP. And as the AFC’s No. 1 seed, they enjoyed a first-round playoff bye.

That last one? It’s significant, because Kansas City’s head coach is 27-4 in his career when having two weeks to prepare for an opponent.

Add it all up, and the Jacksonville Jaguars have no shot at upsetting the mighty Chiefs in Saturday’s AFC Divisional Playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium.

Just as the Jags had no shot at rallying from a 27-0 deficit against the Los Angeles Chargers in last week’s AFC wild card round … except they did, pulling out a miraculous 31-30 victory.

So this was the question we pondered in making our Jaguars vs. Chiefs prediction: Did Jacksonville use up every bit of its postseason fairy dust in completing the third biggest comeback in NFL playoff history?

We believe so.

Odds updated as of 11 a.m. ET on Jan. 20.

No excuses: We blew it last week. Well, technically, the Los Angeles Chargers — and specifically their dimwitted head coach — blew it.

But the bottom line is we backed the Chargers in Jacksonville, even while acknowledging there was a decent chance that L.A. coach Brandon Staley would have a hand in his own team’s demise.

Should’ve won that bet but didn’t. And that’s all that matters.

But the crux of our analysis — that the Chargers were the superior team — was spot-on. And guess what? The Chiefs are superior to the Chargers. Vastly superior.

Jacksonville knows this, of course. Back in Week 10, the Jags went to Kansas City, fell behind 20-0 and never threatened in a 27-17 loss as a 9.5-point underdog.

In that contest, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes shredded the Jacksonville secondary for 331 passing yards and four touchdowns while completing 26 of 35 passes.

Mahomes also had 39 of his team’s 155 rushing yards as Kansas City finished with a 486-315 edge in total yardage. And even that’s misleading, because the bulk of the Jags’ yards came in garbage time.

So why did the Chiefs’ only win by 10 points? One word: turnovers.

K.C. lost the ball three times (two fumbles and a Mahomes interception). Conversely, the Jags played mistake-free football, something they have done just four times in 18 games.

Think about that: Jacksonville was plus-3 in turnover differential and still lost. By double digits.

» READ MORE: Giants vs. Eagles prediction: Grab the points with moneymaking New York

Not that the Jags are alone in that ignominy. Because the Chiefs were generous with the football all season. They committed 23 turnovers overall, including at least one in all but four games (like Jacksonville). And they had eight games with multiple giveaways.

Overall, Kansas City was minus-3 in turnover differential … and still went 14-3.

That said, the miscues kept the Chiefs from being even more dominant — especially when it comes to covering point spreads. In fact, K.C. is just 6-11 ATS this season, including 2-6 ATS at home (despite going 7-1 SU at Arrowhead).

One of the two covers at home was against the Jaguars. The other: A 24-10, turnover-free Christmas Day rout of the Seahawks as a 10-point favorite.

In games where they had multiple turnovers, the Chiefs went 6-2 SU but 2-6 ATS (again, one of the covers was against Jacksonville — by a half-point).

So it doesn’t take a genius to deduce what Kansas City must do to win this game — and win it convincingly: Protect the football. (Well, that and keep Mahomes upright.)

Of course, protecting the football is something Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence did not do in his playoff debut last Saturday. The second-year pro threw four first-half interceptions against the Chargers, and Jacksonville also lost a fumble on a punt return.

If they want to hang with Mahomes and the Chiefs, Lawrence (and all of his teammates) have to play squeaky-clean football — just like they did in Week 10.

The odds of that happening? Not great, considering Jacksonville has committed at least one turnover in 13 of 15 games dating to Week 4.

As for the Jags coming into this game hot, confident and playing with house money? All of that is true.

Since losing at Kansas City, Jacksonville is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS, and will walk back into Arrowhead on a six-game winning streak (5-1 ATS).

Additionally, the Jags are also 6-2 SU and ATS as an underdog since Week 9.

But look at the six teams they upset: Raiders, Ravens, Cowboys and Chargers at home; Jets and Titans on the road. Of that group, only three made the playoffs. Only one (Dallas) is still around.

Jacksonville’s last two losses as an underdog: at Detroit and at Kansas City. The Jags were pummeled 41-10 by the Lions and, well, you know what happened against the Chiefs.

Make no mistake, Jacksonville has had a tremendous season under first-year coach Doug Pederson. And the fight the team showed last week at home against the Chargers was amazing.

But this week, the Jaguars are facing a much better team, a much better quarterback and a much better coach (Andy Reid). And a much tougher environment.

Lay the points with the Chiefs at FanDuel and look for them to win by at least three touchdowns — if they hold onto the football.

» READ MORE: Super Bowl odds: Eagles down to fourth choice to win it all

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.