Bet on Kings as a small road favorite against Sixers in Philly Friday night

The Philadelphia 76ers are dealing with their first mini-crisis and hope to avoid a four-game losing streak, while center Joel Embiid (knee) will sit out a third straight game Friday night against the Kings.

There is a clear parallel between this recent skid and Embiid’s injury because replacing the reigning MVP is practically impossible.

The Kings (23-14) are climbing up the Western Conference standings. After winning four of their last five games, they currently stand as the Western Conference’s fifth seed, just three games behind the Timberwolves at the top of the standings.

As the Kings find their groove, they look well-positioned to take advantage of Embiid’s absence on Friday night.

Given their head-to-head record, the Kings are probably happy to see the 76ers only twice a season. Sacramento has lost nine straight meetings against Philadelphia.

One has to think that Embiid played a significant role in tilting the scale in favor of the 76ers. You can almost see the two-time scoring champion having his way with the Kings’ front court players.

Sacramento doesn’t have much size on the interior, as it prefers to start three forwards instead of utilizing a more traditional center. While the Kings are entitled to set their team up however they please, the 76ers have exploited their lack of size in this series.

For example, the 76ers out-rebounded the Kings 6-3 in the previous nine meetings. In some games, Philadelphia had at least 20 more rebounds than Sacramento.

This season, we’re seeing Sacramento do a bit better in the rebounding department as it ranks 16th, averaging 52.1 rebounds compared to 50.7 per game last season. Surprisingly, Philadelphia is slightly behind Sacramento in rebounding, averaging 51.8 per game.

If the Kings can dominate the glass with Embiid ruled out, they should be able to get out of Philadelphia with a win.

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The departure of James Harden allowed the 76ers to share the ball more and play more of an uptempo game. Per TeamRankings, Philadelphia ranks 14th in pace, averaging 103.6 possessions after finishing 28th with 100.4 per game.

We’re also seeing a slight increase in the 76ers’ assists, up from 24.4 to 25.6. These metrics help make the 76ers one of the league’s best offensive teams.

However, the 76ers are one of four teams that rank in the top 10 for both offensive and defensive efficiency. Philadelphia’s defense has actually been its strongest trait, as it ranks fourth in efficiency, allowing 108.2 points per 100 possessions.

The problem is the 76ers’ defense has gone missing during this losing streak, dropping to 24th in efficiency. While Embiid’s absence certainly doesn’t help, you’d like to see the rest of the team be able to pick up the slack.

Philadelphia will need to get some stops against a Sacramento team that plays even faster, with 104 possessions per game. It will undoubtedly face a difficult challenge if the defense continues to struggle and can’t control the glass.

While the 76ers have better cohesion with their starters since Harden’s departure, they can be a bit top-heavy. Last season, Philadelphia ranked 21st in bench scoring, averaging 32.3 points per game.

During this campaign, the 76ers are last with 27.4 points per game coming from their bench.

It’s worth noting that Philadelphia went 13-5 straight-up and against the spread (ATS) last season with Embiid sidelined. Philadelphia is 2-7 straigh-up this season and 3-6 ATS without Embiid.

Given how telling those numbers are in this situational spot, I can only look to side with the visiting Kings as +1.5 underdogs.

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