Bet the under on Joel Embiid rebounds in 76ers and Knicks matchup Friday night

After dropping three straight games for the first time this season, the New York Knicks bounced back with a two-game winning streak. Next up for the Knickerbockers is a trip to the City of Brotherly Love to face the 76ers.

Although the 76ers have the third-best record in the Eastern Conference at 23-10, their 10.4 Net Rating is the highest in the entire league.

Much of Philadelphia’s success is down to Joel Embiid. The eighth-year center is staking his claim to a second-consecutive MVP award as he leads the league with 34.8 points per game.

But he’s not just scoring points. He’s averaging a double-double with 11.8 rebounds per game. Bookmakers set Embiid’s rebounding prop at 11.5 for tonight’s matchup against the Knicks.

That number could be steep against a rejuvenated Knicks team that bolstered its defense following a recent trade.

I’ve seen plenty of commentary about how the Raptors fleeced the Knicks in the trade that sent forwards OG Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa and Malachi Flynn to New York in exchange for guards RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley and a 2024 second-round draft pick.

However, New York quietly began to sour on Barrett and what his actual ceiling could look like. As for Quickley, the Knicks opted not to extend him in October, making him a restricted free agent next summer.

What Knicks fans might overlook is that this move likely signals more trades for New York ahead of the deadline. I suspect the Knicks are clearing space to land a top free agent that can make them a legitimate title contender.

Meanwhile, Anunoby and Achiuwa arrived to provide tremendous defense to a Knicks team that dropped from 14th to 17th in TeamRankings efficiency metrics.

But if you look at New York’s defensive rating in the two games following the trade, it ranks sixth with a 107.9 value.

Anunoby posted his best numbers in 2021-22, averaging 17.1 points per game. He’s averaging 15 points this season, while Achiuwa averages 7.3 per game.

Thus, these are different from the type of players that are ball-dominant. Both are established enough to know where their strengths lie as solid role players.

Both can defend all five positions and might be called upon to try and slow down Embiid.

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There’s no question the numbers have been staggering for Embiid this season, including his usage rate, which sits at a league-high 37.8%.

What’s been impressive about Embiid is how economical he is with his shots despite also playing away from the basket. He shoots 53.9% from the floor while attempting 3.3 3-pointers per game.

Embiid often does his damage early in games to help set the tone for the 76ers.

While I’d fully expect him to get his points, the Knicks must try to limit Philadelphia’s extra scoring opportunities. They’ll need to keep Embiid off the glass as much as possible to achieve this.

However, New York might have the personnel to keep Embiid at bay. The Knicks rank fifth in rebounds with 54.8 per game, and they have a +0.5 margin in extra scoring chances compared to the 76ers.

On Wednesday against the Bulls, Isaiah Hartenstein erupted with a 20-rebound performance.

If New York can lean on its defense more, it can overcome the loss of Barrett and Quickley on the offensive end.

The Knicks’ frontcourt has one of the best defense vs. position numbers when facing opposing centers. New York ranks fourth in this category, allowing 13.21 rebounds per game.

What I like most about this challenge for the Knicks is that the players who will guard Embiid aren’t their best offensive scorers. Thus, facing Embiid allows those players to lock in on their defensive assignments.

Hartenstein is a player who will undoubtedly embrace that challenge, given that he’s taken over the starting job for the injured Mitchell Robinson. With Anunoby and Achiuwa joining the ranks, the Knicks are well-positioned to keep Embiid under 11.5 rebounds.

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