Leicester City vs. Liverpool prediction: Bet on high-scoring total in Monday’s EPL fixture

Ahead of Monday’s stand-alone Premier League fixture at the King Power Stadium, we’re set to share a Leicester City vs. Liverpool prediction.

This game carries big implications at both the top and bottom of the table. Visitors Liverpool are chasing a Champions League spot — they sit four point behind Manchester United for the final spot — while Leicester are seeking an escape from the relegation zone — the Foxes are two points from safety with three games left.

Liverpool is a -165 road favorite with Leicester City and the draw priced at +380 and +350, respectively. The total is set at 3.5 goals, juiced -145 to the under.

In an earlier meeting this season at Anfield, these sides combined for 3.25 expected goals and six big scoring chances between them, per fotmob.com.

With the change in venue, that should be enough to push this game over a lofty total.

Driving that belief is the fact Liverpool road fixtures this season have proved to be high-event fixtures. Through 17 domestic games away from home, Liverpool and their opponents are combining to create 3.19 expected goals per 90 minutes.

Of those 17 fixtures, all but six have featured at least three goals.

Additionally, Liverpool has proved their high-powered offense can travel well when they’re playing poor opposition. In eight road games against sides with a bottom-half expected goal differential, manager Jurgen Klopp’s side is creating 1.74 expected goals per 90 minutes.

In their last five qualifying games against such opponents, they’ve generated at least 1.7 expected goals in all but one, per fbref.com.

That will bode well against a Leicester City defense in complete shambles right now. In their last three fixtures — at Leeds and Fulham, vs. Everton — the Foxes are allowing 2.07 expected goals per 90 minutes and have allowed all three to create at least 1.5 expected goals.

Given all three of those sides rate behind Liverpool in expected goals per 90 minutes, the Reds should create a boatload of chances.

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That said, don’t count out this Leicester City attack.

In the reverse fixture against Liverpool, they created one expected goal and three big scoring chances. Plus, their attack has shown signs of life in recent games.

Although largely against poor competition, Leicester has generated 2.6 expected goals per 90 minutes in their last five matches along with 2.06 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.

Against a Liverpool defense that has kept only one deserved clean sheet away from home, bank on the hosts to bag at least one tally.

For those reasons, take over 3.5 goals and enjoy a back-and-forth fixture.

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