Louisville is a live double-digit underdog against North Carolina in ACC matchup Wednesday night

The Louisville Cardinals battle the North Carolina Tar Heels on Wednesday night in Chapel Hill in what should be an intriguing tilt.

The Heels are whopping 23-point favorites. They’re now ranked No. 5 nationally on KenPom and are a legitimate Final Four team.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals continue to reach new lows under Kenny Payne, now sitting at 6-10 on the year with losses to Chattanooga and DePaul.

That said, this is too many points.

(Via DraftKings)

(9 p.m. ET Wednesday, ACC Network)

Louisville’s offense lacks ball movement, too often devolving into iso hero ball or inefficient mid-range jumpers.

But that might work against the Heels.

Their defense is fine, but individual Heels struggle one-on-one, ranking 252nd nationally in isolation PPP allowed (.84). They also rank 263rd in mid-range PPP allowed (.79), with opponents cashing in on 35% of their mid-range 2s.

Louisville won’t stop North Carolina. The Heels are a transition and post offense, using their elite three-guard lineup of RJ Davis, Cormac Ryan and Elliot Cadeau to run the floor and dump the ball to Armando Bacot in the low block.

Unfortunately for them, the Cardinals are arguably the sport’s worst transition defense (1.18 PPP allowed, 353rd) and are almost as bad in the post (.89 PPP allowed, 234th). The guards can’t stay in front of Davis/Ryan/Cadeau, and the forwards can’t stop Bacot.

That said, this is a down spot for the Tar Heels, who have reeled off seven straight and play three of their next four on the road.

So, I expect Louisville to score enough and stay within 20 for 40. The Cardinals have a decent offensive matchup, and I don’t think the Heels will give their best defensive effort.

Most predictive analytics sites project North Carolina closer to a 20-point favorite than a 23-point one, so I’ll happily bet Louisville at +21 or better.

For what it’s worth, UNC hasn’t beaten LOU by more than 21 since early 2021, and two of those three games stayed within 10 points.

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