Mets vs. Phillies prediction: Bet on high scoring opening game of series in Friday’s matchup

The Phillies got “swept” by the Braves this week, dropping two of three with the middle game being postponed, setting up our Phillies vs. Mets prediction and pick for Friday’s June 23 game.

Lucky for the Phils, the Mets aren’t playing any better. The Mets are 5-13 in June and haven’t won a series in six tries.

The problem for both these squads is pitching, and I expect those problems to rear their ugly head on Friday night in Philadelphia.

Odds via FanDuel.

The Mets and Phillies have strong one-two punches at the top of their rotations.

The Mets have Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, while the Phillies have Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola.

Those are formidable duos.

Until they’re not.

Those four guys have a combined ERA of 4.07 this year.

And when you shell out so many resources toward the top two spots in the lineup, you sacrifice resources for the back end of your rotation.

That’s what’s happening with the Phillies, who are trying to get half-decent starts in Bailey Falter, Ranger Suarez, Matt Strahm and today’s starter, Taijuan Walker.

I was never high on Walker, but I’m even less so this season. His underlying metrics are not there, and his regressing four-seam (inconsistent velocity) means he relies on a splitter more than ever.

Walker has put together three consecutive quality starts but also tends to fade in the second half of seasons. So, I’m not bullish on him going forward (I might even consider him overvalued).

The Mets are trying to find quality starts from the likes of David Peterson, Carlos Carrasco, Tylor Megill and today’s starter, Kodai Senga.

This story is a tad different.

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The Phillies want 150 league-average innings out of Walker, a 30-year-old regression candidate.

But Senga was inked to a five-year, $75 million contract in the offseason after a dominant 10-year stretch in the NPB. His hard, high-90s fastball and devastating ghost forkball were supposed to translate directly to MLB. He was supposed to be one of the best middle-rotation guys in the sport.

Initially, that happened. Senga helped the Mets survive an early-season stretch without Verlander and with Scherzer’s struggles.

But Senga has been on a downward trajectory since.

His fastball velocity is down a tick, and his Stuff+ metrics are sliding.

(Stuff+ is a metric that quantifies the “nastiness” of a pitch based on its physical characteristics, such as release point, velocity, movement and spin rate. The league-average mark is 100, so having 100 Stuff+ on your fastball means you have a league-average fastball.)

Senga also allows too many free passes. He walks an absurd 13.4% of batters faced. He’s issued 10 walks over his past 16 ⅓ innings.

Back to Friday’s handicap: These are two starting pitchers I’m low on, so I’ll be looking to fade them by betting on the Over.

These are two inconsistent offenses, but both have produced runs at an above-average rate against right-handed pitching this month by wRC+ (Mets at 101, Phillies at 105). Hard-hitting superstars litter both lineups (Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, et cetera), so I expect these lineups to smack around these starters.

As for the later innings…

The Phillies bullpen is good, but they used their top three relievers in yesterday’s extra-inning loss to the Braves (Craig Kimbrel, Jose Alvardo, Greg Soto), so they’re a tad stretched.

The Mets’ bullpen is downright horrendous.

Three bullpens have negative WAR this season: the A’s, Nationals and Mets. The Mets also rank bottom-10 in reliever Win Probability Added and expected FIP.

The unit is broken without Edwin Diaz.

Don’t expect much late-game run prevention from elite high-leverage relievers in this one.

The cherry on top of all this poor pitching is great hitting weather and bad defense.

We’re getting 80-degree temperatures and wind blowing straight out to center field at Citizens Bank Field on Friday night. Based on that report, BallParkPal’s park factors estimate a +30% home run factor and +14% run factor for the game (i.e., we should expect 30% more home runs and 14% more runs than the average game).

These are two bottom-10 fielding teams.

The Mets are 21st in Defensive Runs Saved this season, and the Phillies struggle to catch routine fly balls.

Philadelphia’s defensive outfield has been a problem for years now. That’s what happens when you trot out Schwarber and Nick Castellanos daily.

I expect an action-packed, high-scoring affair, so I’m more than happy to take the Over 9.5 (-105) available at FanDuel.

The Action Network App’s PRO model projects this total at 9.9, while BallParkPal’s game simulations are closer to 11. So, there’s loads of value in the number.

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