Bet on a low scoring game between the Phillies and Athletics on Saturday

The Phillies somehow lost game one of their home series against the hapless Oakland A’s. Hopefully, they can bounce back behind rookie starter Tyler Phillips, who shined against the Braves last week.

However, Oakland’s Mitch Spence is an underrated starting pitcher who could give the Phillies some fits.

(4:05 p.m. ET, NBCS-PHI)

I don’t know what Phillips’ ceiling is, but he looked quite impressive in his MLB debut, allowing just one earned across four innings with seven strikeouts against a good Atlanta lineup. His advanced pitching model metrics look good (103 Stuff+, 108 Location+, 110 Pitching+), indicating his mid-90s sinker/slider mix could perform better than we initially projected.

Similarly, Spence is a severely underrated starting pitcher, riding an excellent slider (123 Stuff+ mark on the pitch) to expected run indicators below four (3.76 xERA, 3.87 xFIP).

I also think decently highly of both bullpens. The Phillies rank top-five in reliever fWAR and xFIP behind an uber-deep core, while the A’s have plus-bullpen metrics thanks to the ever-dominant Mason Miller, who earned a save in Boston the other day.

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While the Phillies hit both sides well, the A’s have consistently been among the worst lineups in baseball. They’ve posted a .659 OPS against right-handed pitching over the past month, the third-worst mark in baseball, beating out only the White Sox and Marlins.

Between the two underrated starting pitchers, the two good bullpens, and the A’s hapless lineup, I think the total is way too high at 9.5 runs. BallParkPal’s model projects only 8.6 runs, giving us plenty of value on the under.

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