Bet on high scoring Phillies-Diamondbacks game during Saturday’s action

The Phillies host the second game of a three-game set with the Diamondbacks on Saturday, looking to avenge their loss in last season’s NLCS.

With Zack Wheeler on the mound against Tommy Henry, the Phillies have to feel good about getting a win.

However, I’m looking at a different betting angle, centering more around the weather report.

(4:05 p.m. ET, NBCS-PHI)

Citizens Bank can play like a hitter’s paradise under the right conditions, and tomorrow’s weather report looks pretty good – double-digit breezes out toward right field with temperatures approaching 100.

As a result, BallParkPal’s weather model projects a +10% Run Factor for this game, meaning we should expect 10% more scoring than the average MLB game. That includes a +31% Home Run factor.

That could prove tricky for Henry, who has been among the worst starting pitchers in baseball this season (6.23 ERA, 6.31 xERA, -0.2 fWAR). The young righty doesn’t have the stuff to compete at the Major League level (81 Stuff+), relying too heavily on a 90 mph four-seam fastball.

Meanwhile, the Phillies are the seventh-best lineup in baseball against right-handed pitching (108). Two of their top three hitters are lefties – Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber.

Conversely, it’s hard to produce against Wheeler, the current favorite to win the NL Cy Young (2.84 ERA, 3.03 xERA, 2.0 fWAR).

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But he’s been a tad more vulnerable in recent starts, posting a 4.22 ERA over his past seven starts, including blowup performances against Miami (6 ER across 4 IP) and Baltimore (8 ER across 4 ⅓ IP).

And the Snakes’ bats are beginning to heat up, posting a whopping 131 wRC+ against righties over the past two weeks. Star hitter Corbin Carroll has finally begun to break out of his early-season slump, slashing .310/.431/.500 during the two-week stretch.

I’m impressed by the Phillies’ bullpen (4.2 bullpen fWAR, second), but they’re vulnerable as a defensive team (26th in Defensive Runs Saved). Conversely, the Diamondbacks are an excellent defensive team (fourth in Defensive Runs Saved) but a horrendous bullpen (0.2 bullpen fWAR, 24th).

Behind favorable hitting weather, there’s plenty of run-scoring prowess and pitching vulnerability across all nine innings in Philadelphia on Saturday.

BallParkPal’s model projects a whopping 10.7 runs for this game, and I’m willing to wager on that projection.

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