Back the Phillies’ money line and a high scoring series opener against the Dodgers

After dropping two of three to the Braves over the weekend — scoring just one run across the final 18 innings — the Phillies look to bounce back in this monster home series against the Dodgers.

The Phillies get a considerable boost with Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper expected to return from the 10-day IL.

They also get an advantage by facing off against Bobby Miller, LA’s young starter working through a brutal season.

Read on for our Dodgers vs Phillies Odds, Predictions, and Picks for Tuesday, July 9.

(Odds via Bet365 Sportsbook)

(6:40 p.m. ET, NBCS-PHI)

While I feel the Phillies are overpriced, I must fade Miller.

In the preseason, I thought Miller was a dark-horse Cy Young candidate. But after a dominant season debut against the Cardinals (6 IP, 0 ER, 11 K), he’s been nothing short of disastrous.

Miller allowed seven earned across six innings to the Cubs and Twins before hitting the IL with shoulder and forearm issues. He made some rehab starts at Low-A Rancho Cucamonga and Triple-A Oklahoma City, allowing 13 earned across 15 innings with 10 strikeouts, eight walks and two HBPs.

In three starts since returning from the minors, Miller’s allowed 10 earned across 13 innings with seven strikeouts, nine walks, and three homers.

What’s more concerning is his velocity and command.

Miller used to have the highest average fastball velocity in baseball (99 mph), but he’s been down about two ticks since returning from the IL (97). His heater dropped even more in his most recent start against Arizona (96), and his sinker and slider also lost considerable heat — his slider is down four ticks on average since opening day.

During his most recent three-start stretch, Miller has posted a 110 Stuff+ mark across his arsenal, which is OK but nowhere near the 123 mark he posted in 2023.

Of more significant concern in his control, as his Location+ mark is down to 89 across his past three starts, a 13-point drop from 2023. He only converted 60% of his pitches for strikes against Arizona, his secondaries couldn’t earn whiffs, and missed spots resulted in hard-hit balls — Miller’s allowed five barrels across his past 13 innings, a 12% rate.

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Miller looks all out of whack, and he’s battling a hard-hitting Phillies lineup that will have their two best southpaw sluggers back. The lineup has held up OK in their absence, but their return should have a monster impact on Tuesday, given Miller’s non-negligible platoon splits.

Miller has no shot of competing with Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia’s starter for Tuesday.

Wheeler is the betting favorite for NL Cy Young (+135 at FanDuel), and I don’t need to emphasize just how good he is. He’s in excellent form, striking out 20 across his past 20 innings while allowing only five earned runs.

I also give the Phillies a slight bullpen advantage on Tuesday, given they’re a consistent top-five bullpen with plenty of depth. Philly relievers have posted a 30% strikeout minus walk rate over the past two weeks, compared to LA’s 7% mark during the stretch.

Ultimately, I believe the Phillies jump all over Miller, building an early lead, even against an excellent Dodger lineup. The bullpen also has a better chance to hold the lead over the final frames.

The weather report calls for excellent hitting weather at Citizens Bank Park on Tuesday, with mid-90-degree temperatures and near-double-digit breezes blowing out toward center field. BallParkPal’s weather model projects a +17% Run Factor for the game behind a +31% home run factor. BallParkPal projects 10 runs for this game, while the Action Network projects 9.5.

Therefore, I expect a high-scoring Phillies win behind a brutal outing from Miller, and I advise you to wager accordingly.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.