Bet on a high-scoring series opener between the Marlins and Phillies in NL East series opener

Trevor Rogers is 1-8 with a 4.90 ERA. The Miami Marlins are 2-13 in his starts this seaosn.

Zack Wheeler is 9-4 with a 2.73 ERA. The Philadelphia Phillies are 9-7 in his starts this season.

It seems like a foregone conclusion that the Phillies will win on Thursday in this starting pitching matchup.

But – especially compared to the market consensus – I expect a higher-scoring affair in our Marlins vs Phillies Odds, Predictions, Picks for Thursday, June 27.

(Odds via bet365 Sportsbook)

(6:20 p.m., NBCS-PHI)

Wheeler has been spectacular this season, cementing himself as the rightful National League Cy Young favorite.

But the Marlins might have his number.

Wheeler has allowed 24 earned runs across his past seven starts against the divisional foe, sporting a robust 6.00 ERA during that 36-inning stretch. Four of Miami’s top hitters have crushed him during that stretch.

I see nothing in Wheeler’s profile that gives me cause for concern – and the Fish lineup is hapless – but he hasn’t dominated Miami like every other squad.

Conversely, Rogers gives me little to no confidence. He’s posted mediocre numbers (4.90 ERA, 5.10 xERA, 8.2% K-BB rate), and the Phillies shelled him in their only meeting this year (4 ER across 3 ⅓ innings).

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The Phillies generally crush left-handed pitching (118 wRC+, sixth), and have done similarly well against the side over the past month (121 wRC+, seventh). So, I’m not worried about Philly’s top hitters annihilating Rogers.

I generally like both bullpens, but both units are extended. On Wednesday, the Marlins deployed four higher-leverage relievers (Anthony Bender, Andrew Nardi, Huascar Brazoban, J.T. Chargois) while the Phillies were forced to use six total after a shorter-than-expected three-inning start by Spencer Turnbull, including their two highest-leverage guys (Gregory Soto, Jose Ruiz, Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, Jeff Hoffman, Jose Alvarado).

These two played a three-game set in May, and all three games cruised over relatively low totals.

I’m banking on more of the same on Thursday. BallParkPal’s model projects a whopping 9.6 runs for this matchup, giving us plenty of value on the over 7.5 available at bet365.

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