Phillies win total, Braves’ Chris Sale to win NL Cy Young award among best NL East futures to back

Tuesday’s All-Star Game marked the “official” halfway point of the 2024 MLB season – although most teams have played closer to 65% of their games.

With this in mind, it’s the perfect time for our gambling department to check in on the state of the NL East.

I have a few long-term futures wagers to share as we inch closer to October.

It might be Philadelphia’s year.

The Phillies have the best pitching staff in baseball, producing three more pitching WAR than any other unit (16.3; the Red Sox are second at 13). Four rotational guys are serious Cy Young contenders (Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, Christopher Sanchez), and the bullpen features depth behind some of the league’s best high-leverage relievers (Jose Alvarado, Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm).

The top-end talent in the lineup is excellent (Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto), but even when the team suffered key injuries (Harper, Schwarber, Realmuto), the depth pieces performed well in their stead. The Phillies’ depth might be underrated, alongside their defense, which isn’t as bad as some advanced metrics make them out to be (26th in Defensive Runs Saved, but 11th in Outs Above Average).

All that said, I still think the Phillies are a tad overvalued in the longer-term betting markets.

They are 14-10 in one-run games, and their Pythagorean record (59-37) – based on run differential – is about three games worse than their actual (62-34). They could see some close-game variance flip in the second half.

It’s also worth mentioning the Phillies have the fifth-toughest remaining strength of schedule in the National League and the eighth-toughest overall (.506). Aside from seven games against the always-tough Braves, the Phils still have three-game sets against the Dodgers, Yankees, Guardians and Brewers.

I’m also worried about Zack Wheeler, who recently had an MRI after exiting his final first-half start early due to back pain. He’s among the league’s best workhorses, and any serious injury could test Philadelphia’s rotational depth.

If the Phillies continued their torrid .646 pace, they’d finish with 104 wins. However, it’s reasonable to expect they’ll slow down, so most sportsbooks have re-priced their season-long win total around 100.

But the projection systems believe that’s too high. Both Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA model and FanGraphs’ ZiPS model project the Phillies to finish with exactly 98 wins, providing us with a 2.5-win edge against the 100.5-win price (-110) offered at bet365.

Additionally, the Phillies have built plenty of goodwill in the standings, leading the Braves for the NL East by 8.5 games and the Dodgers for the top overall NL seed by 6.5 games. If they carry a considerable lead into the season’s final week, they could forego the final few games to rest their starters, potentially costing them the triple-digit win mark.

The 2024 Phillies are a special ballclub, but winning 100 MLB games in a season is really tough, and there’s reason to suspect they’ll fall a game or two short.

» READ MORE: Ranger Suárez has betting value to win National League Cy Young award

The funny thing about the 2024 Braves is that they haven’t been bad on the mound. Instead, they’ve brutally underperformed in the lineup, especially after Ronald Acuna Jr.’s injury.

Atlanta boasts the third-most pitching fWAR among MLB teams (12.6), including the second-best reliever ERA (2.94) and three reliable starting pitchers (Chris Sale, Max Fried, Reynaldo Lopez).

But, among those three starters, one stands above the rest. Ladies and gentlemen, Chris Sale will be your National League Cy Young winner.

It’s hard to overstate Sale’s current form. His once-deadly, sweeping, across-the-plate slider is again among the league’s best offerings, as he’s racked up 78 strikeouts on the pitch behind an insane 42% whiff rate.

But, of greater importance, Sale’s changeup-sinker mix is much improved, helping him neutralize right-handed bats, who crushed him during his final seasons with Boston. After years of struggling against the side, he’s finally providing even platoon splits again.

Sale is dominating, leading the National League in fWAR by nearly half a win (3.7; Sanchez ranks second with 3.2). His 2.70 ERA is backed up by expected run indicators in the mid-2.00s (2.70 xERA, 2.23 FIP, 2.52 xFIP), and he leads all qualified starters in strikeout minus walk rate (30%).

Additionally, the biggest challenger to Sale for the award is Wheeler, who is either shelved with an injury or will see limited second-half usage – I expect the Phillies will manage his workload so he’s fully healthy for the playoffs.

Paul Skenes (+500, DraftKings) has the third-shortest odds in this market. While Pittsburgh’s rookie sensation already looks like a potential Hall of Fame arm, I don’t expect him to amass enough innings (or WAR) to compete for the Cy.

Conversely, the Braves need Sale’s innings to keep up in the National League Wildcard race. They can only rely on 24-year-old Spencer Schwellenbach and 40-year-old Charlie Morton for so much.

I think Sale should be the runaway favorite for the NL Cy. He’s been the best pitcher in the league, and he’s on pace to amass enough WAR behind enough quality innings to earn the coveted award, which would be the first of his storied career.

The National League wild-card race is a roulette table. Eight teams are within four games of each other for the final two playoff spots, while the Braves sit comfortably four games ahead.

Here are all eight ranked by record, current FanDuel playoff betting odds, and playoff probability models:

New York sticks out among this group, and I really like the team’s chances of making the dance come October.

The Mets boast a top-10 lineup by most metrics, and they’ve been white-hot over the past month, slashing .274/.344/.844 for a .360 wOBA. Francisco Lindor is a metronomic presence in the lineup (125 wRC+) and at shortstop (4.1 fWAR), becoming among the more valuable two-way players in baseball. Similarly, Francisco Alvarez provides similar value in the batter’s box (142 wRC+) and behind the plate, managing the pitching staff (1.8 fWAR). Brandon Nimmo and Harrison Bader are top-notch two-way outfielders (combined 4.5 fWAR).

I don’t love the rotation, especially when Sean Manaea leads the unit in fWAR (1.4). But I think that group has a relatively high ceiling, given the flashes of greatness I’ve seen from Luis Severino, Tylor Megill and Christian Scott.

I love the bullpen, which could help alleviate some rotational pain. The Mets rank fifth in reliever fWAR (3.81) behind breakout seasons from Reed Garrett (42 IP, 34% strikeout, 3.11 xFIP, 0.4 fWAR) and Dedneil Nunez (31 IP, 34% strikeout, 2.41 xFIP, 0.7 fWAR). This could be a fearsome unit once closer Edwin Diaz earns better luck and positive regression (4.05 ERA, 2.89 xERA, 2.96 xFIP).

The Mets have a fairly well-rounded team with plenty of depth. Plus, the math likes them. And they have the National League’s fourth-easiest remaining strength of schedule (.493).

I project zero value on either team. The Nationals were frisky for a while but have finally fallen off. The Marlins have consistently improved this season but are likely heavy sellers at the deadline.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.