Bet on the Braves money line in Saturday’s matchup with the Phillies

The Phillies are hurting.

With J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper on the 10-day IL, manager Rob Thompson has been forced to shove the likes of Garrett Stubbs (58 OPS+), David Dahl (85 OPS+), Whit Merrifield (60 OPS+) and Christian Pache (55 OPS+) into the lineup.

Ace-level starter Ranger Suarez will toe the mound for Philly on Saturday against divisional-rival Braves, who still sit nine games back in the NL East. Young starter Spencer Schwellenbach will face him.

I think the Phillies are due to drop a game and will be wagering accordingly in our Phillies vs Braves Odds, Picks, Predictions for Saturday, July 6.

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

(7:15 p.m. ET, FOX)

While Schwellenbach’s 5.68 ERA looks poor, that’s not indicative of his true talent level. He’s been hamstrung by a high BABIP (.315) and a stupid low strand rate (63%). With some better luck, he should pitch closer to his expected run indicators (3.90 xERA, 3.79 xFIP), and is thus undervalued.

I like Schwellenbach because I like how well he commands his six-pitch arsenal. His 106 Location+ mark is among the league’s best, allowing him to hit his spots and avoid barrels better than almost any arm (3% rate, 95th percentile). Unfortunately, he’s been “singled out” too often.

Hopefully, he handles a severely shorthanded Phillies lineup.

» READ MORE: Bet on a high-scoring game between England and Switzerland in Saturday’s Euro 2024 quarterfinal

In the other dugout, Suarez is due for some negative regression, pairing a 2.27 ERA with expected run indicators nearing three (2.96 xERA, 2.92 xFIP). He’s excellent at inducing weak ground-ball contact, but a .269 BABIP is hardly sustainable.

That negative regression started in his most recent start, when Suarez allowed six earned runs on 10 hits against the Marlins, failing to escape the fifth inning. He’s now posted a 3.89 ERA over his past seven starts, with a paltry 1-2 record to show for it.

The Braves can’t get it together in the lineup without Michael Harris and Ronald Acuna Jr., but over the past month, they’ve pulled (50%) a lot of fly balls (30%), a positive underlying indicator. I expect better days for Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Jared Kelenic and Austin Riley. Marcell Ozuna continues to smash the ball.

While the Phillies boast a top-five bullpen, Atlanta’s bullpen might be undervalued. Over the past two weeks, Brave relievers have posted a 1.74 ERA and .90 WHIP behind a whopping 30% strikeout rate. The Braves’ 3.70 bullpen xFIP ranks fourth in baseball, with Joe Jimenez, Aaron Bummer and Raisel Iglesias each posting excellent seasons.

The Braves have an undervalued starting pitcher and a solid bullpen advantage, and I think they’re being underpriced against a dominant team missing a few essential bats. BallParkPal’s game simulation model projects the Braves as -144 ML favorites on Saturday, providing plenty of value against the current FanDuel number.

Bet Phillies vs Braves with our FanDuel Promo Code

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.