Bet on a low scoring series opener between the Cubs and Phillies on Tuesday night

Surprisingly, the Phillies split a four-game road set with the hapless Marlins over the weekend, although they haven’t lost much ground in the NL West race (eight-game lead).

Conversely, the Cubs have slipped into last place in the NL Central race, posting a 21-34 record since June started.

Read on for our Phillies vs Cubs Odds, Predictions, and Picks for Tuesday, July 2.

(Odds via bet365 Sportsbook)

(8:05 p.m. ET, MLB.TV)

I think the Phillies might have something in young pitching prospect Michael Mercado, who starts on Tuesday.

Since being acquired from Tampa, he’s posted a 1.71 ERA across 47 Triple-A innings. He has a lively fastball (94-to-96 mph) and can miss plenty of bats when his three primary pitches work.

He also added a cutter last season, which has helped him induce more weak contact and ground balls, and I’m always looking to back pitchers with unique whiff-and-weak contact ability.

The 2024 Cubs are a good team against which to make your MLB debut. After starting the year red hot, they’ve slumped ever since, posting bottom-10 offensive marks across the past month (95 wRC+, .675 OPS).

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I’m not as bullish on Cubs starting pitcher Hayden Wesneski. But he’s a relatively capable arm with decent earned run indicators this season (45 IP, 3.60 ERA, 3.87 xFIP).

Of greater importance, the Phillies are supremely shorthanded. J.T. Realmuto, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are all on the IL. I don’t know how the Phillies hit with three of their best bats shelved.

I don’t have much confidence in the Cubs bullpen, which can be mercurial and disastrous. However, the Phillies have a top-five relief corps with a 2.12 ERA and .91 WHIP over the past two weeks.

Regardless, both BallParkPal’s Game Sim model and the Action Network’s PRO model project fewer than nine runs for this Tuesday’s matchup.

Between the Phillies’ new young pitching star, Chicago’s offensive woes, Philly’s depleted lineup, and Philly’s excellent bullpen, I agree with the projection market.

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