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Bet on a high-scoring series opener between the Phillies and Tigers in Detroit

The market is projecting Monday's Phillies vs Tigers total a tad low.

Bryce Harper #3 of the Philadelphia Phillies hands the ball to closer Jeff Hoffman #23 after defeating the Arizona Diamondbacks 4-1 during a game at Citizens Bank Park on June 23, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
Bryce Harper #3 of the Philadelphia Phillies hands the ball to closer Jeff Hoffman #23 after defeating the Arizona Diamondbacks 4-1 during a game at Citizens Bank Park on June 23, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)Read moreRich Schultz / Getty Images
    by Tanner McGrath, Action Network
    Published 

Although perennial Cy Young contender Aaron Nola toes the rubber for the 51-26 Philadelphia Phillies on Monday, I’m still banking on a high-scoring ballgame.

Read on for our Phillies vs Tigers Odds, Prediction, and Pick for Monday, June 24.

Phillies vs Tigers Odds

Team
Phillies
Moneyline
-178
Spread
-1.5 (-110)
Total
o8 (-112)
Team
Tigers
Moneyline
+150
Spread
+1.5 (-110)
Total
u8 (-108)

(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Phillies vs Tigers Prediction

(6:40 p.m. ET, NBCS-PHI)

It doesn’t feel like Detroit’s immensely below-average lineup can produce runs against Nola or Philadelphia’s top-five bullpen.

However, Nola hasn’t looked like himself recently, allowing 11 earned runs over his past 10 innings pitched, feeding into a 4.25 ERA since mid-May. And the Phillies bullpen is a tad extended, as they had to deploy top relievers Jose Alvarado and Jeff Hoffman in Thursday’s 4-1 win over Arizona.

So, I think the Tigers can scrape together a few runs at home in this series-opening match.

Conversely, the Phillies should have no issues bombing away against Casey Mize and Co.

The Phillies are a top-five lineup against right-handed pitching, while Mize boasts expected run indicators in the mid-4.00s (4.43 ERA, 4.36 xERA, 4.14 xFIP) behind a relatively low strikeout minus walk rate (9%) and a concerning batted-ball profile (42% hard-hit rate allowed, 91 mph average exit velocity allowed).

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Detroit’s bullpen ranks below average in most metrics. Tiger relievers rarely make mistakes but feature lackluster stuff (96 bullpen Stuff+, 29th), meaning they can’t force strikeouts (22% bullpen strikeout rate, 22nd). They rely on command, control, and pitching to contact, which can get you into trouble against elite lineups.

BallParkPal’s model projects 8.5 runs for this game, while Action Network’s PRO model projects 8.4.

So, I think the market is projecting this total a tad low.

Phillies vs Tigers Pick

  1. Over 8 (-112, FanDuel) | Play to 8 (-115)

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