Back the Phillies to dominate against the Angels with Zack Wheeler on the mound on Wednesday

Zack Wheeler is the best pitcher in the National League.

No NL pitcher has been worth more FanGraphs WAR through six starts than Wheeler (1.4). Only four have a lower ERA (1.93), although two are in the Phillies rotation (Ranger Suarez, Spencer Turnbull). Only three players have a higher strikeout rate (31%).

Wheeler takes the mound on Wednesday for his seventh start this season, battling the Angels in Anaheim.

I’m betting Wheeler continues his dominance against a hapless, Mike Trout-less lineup.

(Via Bet365)

(4:07 p.m. ET, NBCS-PHI)

Wheeler already had one of baseball’s deepest, well-balanced arsenals, a five-pitch mix with no below-average offerings. So, he’s been able to work more quality innings than almost any pitcher over the past few seasons.

Still, there’s always room for improvement.

Wheeler added a splitter this season, using it about 12% of the time as his third offering. But he’s induced a 36% whiff rate and 40% chase rate while allowing a 9% hard-hit rate across 73 of them.

It may already be his best pitch.

Suddenly, Wheeler is on pace to post his most dominant season, with career-best marks in strikeout rate (31%), FIP (2.44), expected ERA (2.35), swinging-strike rate (16%), called strike plus whiff rate (32%), ground-ball rate (53%) and wOBA allowed (.248).

He’s also continued to pitch deep into games, working at least six frames in six of seven starts. In his two most recent starts, he shut out the White Sox and Reds across 13 ⅓ innings, striking out 16 while allowing two hits.

Wheeler could pitch close to 200 innings this season with an ERA from mid-2.00s to low-3.00s, which is undoubtedly Cy Young-worthy.

On Wednesday, Wheeler battles an Angels lineup that is merely average against right-handed pitching (97 wRC+, 18th in MLB) and missing its third-best hitter against the side (Trout, .928 OPS).

Trout’s injury is a bummer, significantly lowering the Angels’ already-low ceiling. While Jo Adell (.979 OPS) and Taylor Ward (.806) have crushed the ball in the early going, neither have proven long-term track records like Trout. Either way, the lineup will be without its second-best hitter by expected wOBA (.402).

Ultimately, we need to downgrade the Angels lineup from mediocre to below-average.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s bats are heating up, posting MLB’s highest team OPS over the past half month, boosting the Phillies to a 12-3 record during the stretch.

The Phillies have done a great job getting on base, with a walk rate of over 10%, contributing to MLB’s second-highest OBP over the past two weeks (.361).

And that should prove problematic for Patrick Sandoval, the Angels starting pitcher.

Sandoval isn’t a terrible pitcher, and he added a sweeper last season that’s now among the best pitches in baseball (140 Stuff+).

But his problem is command and control. Sandoval managed 144 innings last season and issued the eighth-most walks of any pitcher (74). Since being called up in 2019, he’s posted a 10.2% walk rate, the 12th-highest among qualified pitchers during those five years.

Sandoval has made one start against the Phillies in his career, issuing four free passes across 4 ⅔ innings in mid-2022.

I expect more of the same today.

Therefore, I give the Phillies a significant early-innings advantage in this matchup.

I also give the Phillies a significant late-innings advantage. Philadelphia ranks fourth among MLB bullpens in relief pitching FanGraphs WAR, while Los Angeles ranks 27th.

Of greater importance, the Angels’ four highest-leverage relievers have pitched twice in the past three days, with closer Carlos Estevez and set-up man Matt Moore each tossing over 30 pitches across the past two days.

The Phillies’ pen is a tad stretched but far more rested than their fully-extended opponent.

Ultimately, the Phillies have significant advantages in the batter’s box, on the mound and in the bullpen, and I expect they cruise across all nine innings.

Even at the moderately juiced prices, I’ll bet on Wheeler in the first half and the Philly relievers in the second half.

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