Back the struggling Phillies’ money line against the Dodgers on Tuesday night

The Phillies keep losing, falling 5-3 to the Dodgers in this massive series opener on Monday.

But they have an excellent matchup against Clayton Kershaw on Tuesday, and I’m banking on a big bounce-back win at relatively low odds.

Read on for my Phillies vs Dodgers MLB odds, predictions and picks.

(Odds via BetRivers Sportsbook)

(10:10 p.m. ET, NBCS-PHI)

I think Kershaw’s arm is cooked. His average fastball velocity through two starts this season is under 90 MPH, officially reaching a career low. The slider is no longer the dominant neutralizer it was once – he earned only one whiff on 33 pitches in his most recent start. The spin rates on his curveball have reached career lows (2200 RPMs).

As a result, he’s struggled. He’s allowed five earned across his first 12 innings (5.87 ERA), managing only six strikeouts to three walks.

A burnt-out, elderly, left-handed arm could be exactly what the Phillies need to get back on track in the lineup. They’ve been in a brutal recession during Bryce Harper’s slump. But they are almost 20% more productive against left-handed pitching (122 wRC+, first) than against right-handed pitching (102, 12th), so this is a good matchup.

Conversely, the Phillies will start Cristopher Sanchez. The lefty was dominant across his first 16 starts, posting a 2.41 ERA across 93 innings with a gaudy 60% ground-ball rate. But he was also running well with home run variance, allowing a 2% HR/FB rate during that stretch – unsustainable compared to his 14% career average.

He’s allowed a few more dingers across his past five starts, resulting in 20 earned runs across 27 innings (6.59 ERA) and four losses. That said, we should’ve expected natural variance across a full season for him, so this doesn’t give me too much cause for concern.

For what it’s worth, Sanchez twirled six innings of two-run ball against the Dodgers in a 4-3 win last month, inducing 10 ground balls while allowing zero barrels. The Dodgers are tied with the Phillies as MLB’s best offense against southpaws (also a 122 wRC+), but they aren’t as dangerous without Mookie Betts or Max Muncy – the bottom half of LA’s lineup is a mess.

It’s tough to say who has the bullpen advantage between these two units at full strength, but the Dodgers are super extended right now, with Daniel Hudson, Michael Kopech, and Anthony Banda each pitching twice in the past three days. Conversely, the Phillies’ five highest-leverage relievers haven’t pitched since Saturday, so the unit is fresh and rested.

I love this spot for the Phillies and think they jump all over Kershaw early.

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