Back the Phillies against the Cubs with Cristopher Sanchez on the mound in Fourth of July macthup

The Phillies and Cubs play an afternoon game on the Fourth of July, with potential NL Cy Young candidate Cristopher Sanchez toeing the rubber for Philadelphia.

I don’t think the Cubs will be able to keep up in our Phillies vs Cubs Odds, Predictions, Picks for July 4.

(2:20 p.m. ET, MLB Network)

Sanchez has been unstoppable over the past month.

He’ll be facing a regressing Cubs lineup. After a red-hot start to the year, they’re 21-44 over their past 65 games, scoring just under four runs per game with the fifth-lowest team OPS during the stretch (.662).

Over the past month, the Cubs have posted MLB’s second-lowest wRC+ against southpaws (72). I don’t see them producing on Thursday.

I am worried about the Phillies’ lineup, given J.T. Realmuto, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are on the IL. Still, they’ve posted MLB’s third-highest wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the past fortnight (135), as they have decent top-of-the-order depth to compensate for injuries.

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They should hit okay against Cubs starting pitcher Jameson Taillon, who is pitching fine this year (3.03 ERA) but overperforming (4.33 expected FIP) because of a drastic decrease in fastball velocity – his most used pitch.

Of similar importance, the Phillies have a monstrous bullpen advantage. They’ve amassed the most relief pitching fWAR among MLB bullpens (4.9), while the Cubs have sunk to 26th (0.2) behind erratic relievers (11% walk rate, third-highest).

The Phillies have won five consecutive head-to-head matchups with the Cubs, and I expect more of the same on Thursday behind the better starting pitcher, lineup and bullpen.

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