Bet on a low scoring game between the Phillies and Pirates in Saturday’s matchup

Christopher Sanchez is a dark horse Cy Young contender.

He’s still 100-to-1 to win the award at some sportsbooks (Caesars) but has amassed the second-most fWAR among National League pitchers (3.2; Chris Sale is first with 3.7). He’s up over 100 innings with a sub-three ERA, and the Phillies are 10-8 in his starts.

He’ll battle Pittsburgh’s underwhelming lineup on Saturday, and the Pirates will run with a bullpen day behind Luis Ortiz.

Read on for our Phillies vs Pirates Odds, Predictions, Picks for Friday, July 19.

(6:40 p.m. ET, NBCS-PHI)

The Pirate bats haven’t lived up to expectations, and they’ve been even worse against southpaws. Over the past month and against left-handed pitching, they’ve posted a .561 OPS behind a whopping 48% ground-ball rate.

Unfortunately for them, Sanchez is a lefty that feeds on grounders. Behind a solid sinker, he boasts the highest ground-ball rate among qualified pitchers, a staggering 59%.

Sanchez isn’t the best matchup for Pittsburgh. The last time these two met – in early April – Sanchez posted six innings of one-run ball behind six strikeouts and an 82% ground-ball rate, inducing 14 in total (tied for his season-high).

And behind him is a deep, talented bullpen that ranks second in reliever fWAR (4.7) and xFIP (3.56).

However, I think the Pirates should be able to battle Philadelphia’s talented lineup. I somewhat like their bullpen, which has posted a 3.16 ERA behind a 27% strikeout rate over the past month. Colin Holderman, Hunter Stratton and David Bednar are a formidable trio, leading a team that ranks fifth in bullpen Stuff+ (109).

And the Pirates might not need to lean too heavily on their ‘pen, as Ortiz has done well in his starts, allowing two earned runs over 18 innings with 17 strikeouts to one walk. He’s still among the better young stuff guys (104 Stuff+, 101 Location+).

If Ortiz and his bullpen can hold the Phillies at bay, Sanchez should dominate again. Therefore, I’m betting on a lower-scoring ballgame on Saturday in Pittsburgh.

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