Bet on the Twins to win a low-scoring game against the Phillies on Tuesday

Zack Wheeler is among the favorites to win the National League Cy Young (+165, DraftKings), and he’ll suit up for his first second-half start against the Twins on Tuesday.

However, he did exit his most recent start early with back pain, and I’m worried about his health.

That could be a problem against the Twins, who are trending up in the batter’s box.

Read on for our Phillies vs Twins Odds, Predictions, Picks for Tuesday, July 22.

(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)

(7:40 p.m., NBCS-PHI)

Wheeler has been spectacular this season, but I worry about that potential back injury. Will he be 100% for this start? Will manager Rob Thompson closely manage his workload?

If he’s not healthy or fully available, that could be a big problem against the Twins. Since Brooks Lee was called up from Triple-A, Minnesota’s lineup looks as dangerous and dynamic as any in MLB.

The Twins lead MLB in wRC+ over the past month (129), posting an OPS over .800 during the stretch. Byron Buxton finally looks like his old self, posting a 1.319 OPS with seven dingers during the month. He and Carlos Correa have combined for 12 homers and 35 RBIs since June 22.

Of similar worry, if Wheeler is pulled early, his relief staff looks very vulnerable. Philly relievers have pitched to a 7.71 ERA, 1.81 WHIP and 4.30 SIERA over the past month behind obscene walk (12%), hard-hit (47%), and barrel (12%) rates.

The Twins could have a field day on Tuesday, especially considering the Phillies’ ever-underwhelming defense (-30 Defensive Runs Saved, 26th).

» READ MORE: Ranger Suárez has betting value to win National League Cy Young award

I don’t quite trust Simeon Woods-Richardson, Minnesota’s starting pitcher for Tuesday, who could struggle against the ever-dangerous Phillies lineup. But his overall profile suggests an above-league-average arm (3.51 ERA, 3.82 xERA, 3.68 FIP, 4.30 xFIP) with excellent command (106 Location+).

Still, given the Twins’ recent form (3.86 ERA, 3.54 SIERA, 1.02 WHIP over the past month), I give them a slight bullpen advantage in this matchup. Minnesota’s relief core has been underwhelming this season, but the unit is too talented to continue trending at a below-average pace.

Additionally, I give Minnesota a significant defensive advantage (+33 Defensive Runs Saved, 10th).

Ultimately, I’m betting the Twins will eke out a high-scoring win as home ‘dogs on Tuesday. The Phillies may score a few against Woods-Richardson, but I’m uber-high on the Twins lineup, bullpen and defense, while I’m worried about Wheeler and Philadelphia’s run-prevention unit.

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