Bet on Phillies ace Aaron Nola’s strikeout prop in his start against the Twins on Wednesday

Perennial Cy Young candidate Aaron Nola takes the mound for the Phillies on Wednesday in Minnesota, hoping to bounce back after a string of tough outings.

Nola has posted an uncharacteristic 5.13 ERA over his past seven starts, most recently allowing four earned over five innings in Pittsburgh.

However, I believe he’s undervalued and due for a big bounce-back performance, even against a tough Twins lineup.

(Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook)

(1:10 p.m. ET, NBC 10)

Nola’s recent stretch is not indicative of his recent performance.

Despite an ERA north of five, he’s posted an expected FIP under three since June 13. His strikeouts are way up during the stretch (44 in 40 innings), as he’s nearing a 30% strikeout rate over his past six starts.

In a three-start stretch to begin July, Nola struck out 26 batters across 18 innings against the Marlins, Braves and Dodgers.

His fastball velocity has slowly increased as the season has progressed, drastically improving his swinging-strike rate and advanced pitching model numbers. Nola’s posted a 103 Stuff+ mark across his arsenal on the season, but that number is up to 107 over the past month.

With his underlying indicators trending above his actual results, now is the time to buy Nola. And with his velocity, stuff metrics, and swinging-strike rates jumping, I’m willing to buy him in the strikeout prop market.

Nola is facing a very patient, dynamic, dangerous Twins lineup. But the lineup hasn’t seen much of Nola, as only five Minnesota batters have registered 24 lifetime plate appearances against the Philadelphia starter. Generally, unfamiliarity favors the guy on the mound.

The projection market is bullish on Nola, with three of my more trusted models projecting Nola close to seven strikeouts on Tuesday.

Yet we can buy Nola’s Over 6.5 Ks at plus-money at BetMGM.

Bet on Aaron Nola with our BetMGM Bonus Code

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