MLB props predictions: Will Yanks’ Judge homer vs. the Phillies on Monday?

Not long ago, there were only a handful of ways to wager on a Major League Baseball game. Bet on the winner for the full game or first five innings, or bet on the Over/Under total for the full game or first five innings.

That was pretty much it.

These days? There are dozens of ways to attack MLB from a wagering perspective. Among the most popular: Betting on player outcomes, both for pitchers and hitters.

Total number of base hits, home runs, total bases, stolen bases, earned runs allowed, strikeouts recorded — all are available to wager at sportsbooks across the country.

We’re tackling three of those stat categories — home runs, total bases and earned runs allowed — with our trio of player prop predictions for Monday’s slate of action.

Odds updated as of April 3 at 2:30 p.m. ET.

As we noted in our Phillies-Yankees betting preview for Monday’s series opener in the Bronx, Philadelphia starting pitcher Taijuan Walker has given up a lot of dingers (41) the last two seasons.

Walker also has given up a bunch of dingers (12) in eight career starts against the Yankees.

The one Bronx Bomber who has ambushed Walker the most? You guessed it: Judge.

The American League’s all time, single-season home run king is 4-for-11 in his career against the Phillies’ new starter. All four hits? They went over the wall.

Judge has already picked up where he left off in 2022 when he belted an AL record 62 homers. He took San Francisco Giants pitcher Logan Webb deep with his very first swing of 2023, then went yard again in Sunday’s 6-0 win over the Giants.

Judge homered in back-to-back games “only” 16 times last season. And this +230 price seems rather short for a home run prop.

But this is a juicy matchup that’s too good to pass up — especially with Monday’s projected wind at Yankee Stadium blowing toward left field at 14 mph.

» READ MORE: Will the Phillies pick up their first win Monday night? Don't count on it.

Judge’s career success against Walker? It’s nothing when compared with the torture Astros first baseman Jose Abreu has inflicted on Detroit Tigers right-hander Matthew Boyd over the years.

Over the course of nine seasons with the Chicago White Sox, Abreu went 14-for-36 (.389) against Boyd with two homers and a double.

Abreu’s ownership of Boyd certainly isn’t lost on oddsmakers — his base-hit prop is juiced as high as -300 at FanDuel. So while we would’ve rather gone that route, the price is just too steep.

Instead, we’re betting that Abreu collects at least two singles or at least one extra-base hit in Monday’s home game against Detroit. And our confidence isn’t entirely tied to the 2000 American League MVP’s career numbers against Boyd.

Abreu has started his first season in Houston swinging a hot bat. He went 6-for-16 in four games against his former team this past weekend. All six hits were singles: one each in the opening two games, then two apiece on Saturday and Sunday.

Abreu had multiple hits in 53 of 157 games last year, and had at least one double or home run in 50 contests.

As for Boyd, he was limited to just 10 relief appearances last season with Seattle, going 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA. For his career, though, Boyd is 39-62 with a 4.90 ERA. He also has a 4.63 ERA in two career starts at Minute Maid Park in Houston, giving up 12 hits in 11 2/3 innings.

You don’t have to do a lot of number crunching to realize that Cueto is very much on the downside of his career — he’s 18-22 with a 4.08 ERA over the past four seasons.

However, the veteran right-hander had a bit of a resurgence in 2022 — at least in the runs-allowed department. Despite an 8-10 record in his first and only season with the White Sox, Cueto posted a 3.25 ERA in 25 games (24 starts).

Four of those 24 starts were against the Twins, all from July 4 onward. Cueto got pummeled in one game (six runs, 10 hits allowed in 5 2/3 innings), but he gave up just five total runs in the other three outings spanning 19 innings.

Throw in two starts in 2015 and one in 2012, and Cueto has surrendered the following run totals (all earned) in seven career matchups against Minnesota: 0, 1, 1, 2, 1, 6, 2.

The Twins are off to a great start to 2023, having swept a four-game series from the Royals in Kansas City. But while the pitching was outstanding (five total runs allowed), the offense was very hit-and-miss.

Minnesota won the first and last games by scores of 10-1 and 7-4. The middle two victories? Both 2-0 finals.

The Twins definitely should put up better offensive numbers this season. But we like Cueto’s chances to keep that offense in check Monday night and surrender two earned runs or fewer for his duration on the bump.

» READ MORE: Bet on Red Sox offense to score early and often against Pirates pitcher Johan Oviedo

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.