Can the Yankees sweep the Phillies? Expect a high-scoring game today.

The Yankees and Phillies continue their monstrous interleague set today after New York took the first two games of the series.

Two southpaw starting pitchers get the ball, with Nestor Cortes facing off against Cristopher Sánchez. These are two pitch-to-weak-contact guys, but Cortes forces pop-ups while Sánchez forces grounders.

However, I’m uncertain about the defenses behind these two starting pitchers, and we should get hitting weather at Citizens Bank Park.

Read on for my Yankees vs. Phillies odds, predictions and picks for Wednesday.

Odds via bet365 Sportsbook

While I’m typically high on Cortes and Sánchez, each enters this outing in a slump.

Cortes has allowed 15 earned runs over his past three starts and 13 innings, posting a lousy 10 strikeouts to six walks during the stretch. He’s pitched to a 4.13 ERA and 4.17 expected FIP across 124 innings, so perhaps he’s not the same pitcher we saw between 2021 and 2022 (2.61 ERA across 251 innings).

Sánchez was unhittable for large portions of the season, posting a 2.41 ERA through his first 16 starts behind an obscene 60% ground-ball rate — fueled by his top-notch sinker. However, he’s seen his ground-ball rate dip to 52% over the past month, allowing 14 earned runs in 21 innings (5.82 ERA) behind an unimpressive 12 strikeouts and six walks.

I’m worried that these two defenses aren’t holding up their end of the bargain for two pitch-to-contact guys.

Despite trading for Jazz Chisholm Jr., the Yankees are still trotting out Gleyber Torres at second base, a below-average defender (-4 Defensive Runs Saved). Chisholm was a poor defensive shortstop when he played there (-5 Defensive Runs Saved in 2021), and I assume he won’t be much better at the hot corner.

Meanwhile, the Phillies rank 26th in Defensive Runs Saved and last in infield Defensive Runs Saved. That doesn’t help Sánchez, who relies on feeding his infield ground-ball outs.

Meanwhile, both bullpens have looked sluggish of late. The Phillies have posted a 7.16 reliever ERA over the past month behind an obscene 12% walk rate, while the Yankees have posted a 5.11 bullpen ERA during that stretch behind an 11% walk rate.

I genuinely believe Philadelphia’s bullpen is among the best in baseball, but I don’t feel the same about the Yankees. I don’t think Clay Holmes and his setup men are that good — the Yankees rank bottom-10 in reliever fWAR (1.2) and bottom-15 in reliever expected FIP (4.09).

Conversely, these are two immensely talented lineups, even if they are often inconsistent. Over the past 30 days and against left-handed pitching, the Phillies rank fifth among MLB lineups in weighted on-base average (.368), while the Yankees rank 12th (.320).

The Phillies have been hitting particularly well, especially Trea Turner, who’s slashing .300/.351/.633 for a .984 OPS this month, adding 10 home runs for good measure. It seems he’s made some slight mechanical adjustments to his swing, and the results are speaking for themselves.

So, between two struggling starting pitchers, two struggling bullpens, two struggling defenses, and two elite offenses, I fully expect a higher-scoring game.

But the cherry on top is great weather. We’re expecting double-digit breezes out toward right field with close-to-90-degree temperatures. Based on the weather report, BallParkPal projects a +10% Run Factor behind a +26% Home Run Factor — so we should expect 10% more runs and 26% more home runs than the typical MLB game.

I expect double-digit runs in this game and will happily bet over 9.5 at any decent price.

Over 9.5 (+105, bet365) | Play to 9.5 (-110)

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