Phillies vs. Diamondbacks prediction: Bet on the Phillies and Zack Wheeler to bounce back Tuesday night

The Arizona Diamondbacks picked up a thrilling 9-8 victory Monday night over the Philadelphia Phillies, and here’s a look at Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds and a prediction for Tuesday’s game.

Expect the Phillies to bounce back in a big way.

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel, current at the time of publishing and subject to change.

The Snakes have significant advantages in the lineup and on defense, and they’ve won eight of the last nine home games against the Phillies.

That said, I’ll be backing the Phillies on Tuesday night for two main reasons.

First, Philadelphia starting pitcher Zack Wheeler is significantly better than Arizona’s Zach Davies.

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Davies is due for some slight positive regression (4.68 ERA, 3.93 expected ERA). Still, I wouldn’t project him as any better than a slightly above-average starting pitcher. His patented changeup has lost all effectiveness, and advanced pitching models project him as one of the worst pitchers in MLB (he has a 76 Stuff+ rating by FanGraphs, which attempts to capture the “nastiness” of an arsenal based on its physical characteristics).

Meanwhile, I’m very bullish on Wheeler. His underlying statistics show his 3.91 ERA is buoyed by bad luck (specifically a 64.3% strand rate, which should be closer to 74%), and he’s historically a slow starter, so he only gets better as the season progresses.

Also, the same advanced pitching model that projects Davies as a terrible pitcher projects Wheeler as one of MLB’s best (his 110 Stuff+ rating is tied for 12th among qualified MLB pitchers).

So, the Phillies have a monster starting pitching advantage on Tuesday.

Second, the Diamondbacks’ bullpen is taxed, and the Phillies’ bullpen is better rested.

These two played a brutal game last night, and the Snakes were forced to use Miguel Castro, Andrew Chafin and Austin Adams in the win. Meanwhile, the Phillies rested Craig Kimbrel, Jose Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez in the loss.

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Combine the two and you realize that the Phillies have the pitching advantage across all nine frames. Also, Wheeler is known for being a workhorse, so he could protect the Phillies’ middle relievers until we get to the better, higher-leverage guys.

I’m willing to bet on this advantage, so give me the Phils on the ML. Hopefully, guys like Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper will wake up and provide their Ace some run support.

Moneyline: Phillies (-132) vs. Diamondbacks (+112)

Spread: Phillies -1.5 (+118) vs. Diamondbacks +1.5 (-142)

Total: Over 9 (-102) | Under 9 (-120)

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