MLB Rookie of the Year odds: Boston’s Yoshida, Dodgers’ Outman favored to win award

Over the past 11 MLB seasons, only five pitchers — two in the National League, three in the American League — have claimed the 22 Rookie of the Year awards handed out in both leagues.

So it’s no surprise that among this year’s top Rookie of the Year candidates — those with odds below +2000 at BetMGM — only one is a pitcher.

What is a bit startling: Memorial Day is still three weeks away, yet we’re already down to eight such candidates. And half of those — two in each league — have odds of +500 or less.

Here’s a look at where things stand in the MLB Rookie of the Year odds market, including how the wagering action is trending at BetMGM.

Odds updated as of 2:45 p.m. ET on May 10.

Boston Red Sox outfielder/designated hitter Masataka Yoshida and Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder James Outman took completely different paths to the top of the MLB Rookie of the Year odds boards in their respective leagues.

After a highly successful seven-year pro career in the Japan Pacific League, Yoshida signed a five-year, $90-million contract with Boston in the offseason.

Conversely, Outman entered spring training with no guarantees he’d even make the Dodgers’ major league roster. When he did, Outman received a one-year contract for $723,000 — $3,000 more than the MLB minimum and $14,877,000 less than the $15.6 million that Yoshida will earn this season.

This explains why Yoshida entered the 2023 season among the favorites to win American League Rookie of the Year, while Outman was a major long shot in the National League.

Yoshida opened as the eighth choice at BetMGM. His +1000 odds ranked directly behind four players at +900: Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe, Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas, Rangers third baseman Josh Jung and Orioles pitcher Grayson Rodriguez.

Now, though, Yoshida is the pace setter in AL Rookie of the Year odds, thanks to a .308 batting average, six homers, 24 RBI and 22 runs in his first 30 big-league games. During a 16-game hitting streak that ended Monday in Atlanta, Yoshida recorded 10 multi-hit games.

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While many had an inkling that the 29-year-old Yoshida would hit the ground running when he arrived stateside, Outman had zero such expectations. Hence the reason his NL Rookie of the Year odds prior to Opening Day were 80-to-1.

Yet after a monster first six weeks of his rookie campaign that included winning NL Rookie of the Month for April, Outman has raced past the competition and is now the favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year.

The 2018 seventh-round draft pick entered Wednesday’s game at Milwaukee batting .274 with eight home runs, 23 RBI, 25 runs, four stolen bases and a .943 OPS.

Yoshida (+150) and Outman (+155) currently have near identical Rookie of the Year odds at BetMGM. But the gap between the two favorites on their top contenders is wider for Yoshida at the moment.

Yoshida has a significant lead over Jung (+500), Houston Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown (+850) and Volpe (+900). The only other American League candidate with odds shorter than +2000 is Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson (+1600).

Among position players, only Jung has numbers that are comparable to Yoshida’s. The eighth overall pick of the 2019 MLB Draft, Jung is only batting .244, but his eight homers rank second on the Rangers. He also has 25 RBI and 23 runs.

As for the Astros’ Brown, he’s 3-1 with a 3.23 ERA and 39 strikeouts in 39 innings across seven starts.

Over in the National League, Outman has a slim edge over Arizona Diamondbacks left fielder Corbin Caroll (+210).

After batting .260 with four homers, nine doubles and 14 RBI in 32 games as a late-season callup last year, Carroll is hitting .299 with five homers, nine doubles and 11 RBI in 34 games this season.

The only other National League player with Rookie of the Year odds lower than +2000 at BetMGM is Mets third baseman Brett Baty. Drafted four spots after Jung in 2019, Baty is at +850 odds despite pedestrian numbers through 18 games (.271 average, two homers, six RBI).

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Yoshida, Volpe and Henderson have attracted the overwhelming majority of the AL Rookie of the Year wagering action at BetMGM.

As of Tuesday, the sportsbook reported that the trio had accounted for 62.8% of all tickets and 70.2% of all money wagered. Yoshida leads the way in both categories (29.7% bets/34.4% dollars), with Volpe second in both (20.5% bets/19.0% dollars).

Volpe entered Wednesday’s game against the Oakland A’s batting just .205, but he belted his first career grand slam in the fifth inning.

In the National League, Carroll leads in both number of bets (27.6%) and amount of money wagered (29.6%).

St. Louis Cardinals right fielder Jordan Walker, who began his career with an MLB rookie-record 12-game hitting streak, is second to Carroll in NL Rookie of the Year tickets (20.2%) and handle (25.4%) at BetMGM.

Walker opened the season with +900 odds to win the award — tied for fifth at BetMGM — but is now out to the +3000 ninth choice.

Meanwhile, Outman ranks third in both bets (8.6%) and dollars (10.5%). Even though many of those wagers were placed before his odds tumbled, Outman is not BetMGM’s biggest NL Rookie of the Year liability.

That honor goes to the player directly behind Outman on the odds board: Carroll.

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