World Series betting odds: Phillies enter the postseason with the longest title odds

After a sluggish start to the season, the Phillies are back in the playoffs for the first time in 11 years. Oddsmakers don’t expect their stay to last long.

Philadelphia enters the postseason as the biggest World Series long shot at BetMGM, dealing at 30/1 to win its first championship since that remarkable 2008 run. That’s actually worse than the team’s odds entering the season, when the Phillies were dealing around 25/1 at most books to win the World Series despite that lengthy playoff drought.

They’ll be back in the mix for this year’s title starting with Friday’s wild-card opener against the Cardinals, who own the third-longest odds in the NL ahead of the Phillies and Padres (28/1). Those three teams trail the Dodgers (3/1), Braves (5/1), and Mets (7/1) – who also entered the season as the top three betting options in the NL.

It’ll be a tough road ahead for the Phillies, who went 7-13 in their final 20 games – tied for the fifth-worst record by any team – but still managed to secure the final wild-card spot ahead of the Brewers. Their reward? A three-game road series against a Cardinals team that owns the fifth-best record since the All-Star break (43-25).

Much of that is thanks to St. Louis’ red-hot bats, which have posted the highest wOBA (.338) and second-highest OPS (.777) over the second half of the season. MVP Paul Goldschmidt (.981 OPS) and fellow star Nolan Arenado (.891) have been the most dangerous threats in this lineup across the full season, but Albert Pujols is a legitimate lynchpin in this order after slashing .323/.388/.715 with 18 home runs and 48 RBIs since the All-Star break.

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If the Phillies survive that test, they’ll hit the road to face the defending champion Braves, who have been arguably the best team in baseball over the last few months. Atlanta has won nearly a third of its games since the All-Star break and boasts a ridiculous 78-34 record (69.6%) since June 1 – the best mark by any team in either league.

Add it all up, and it’s no surprise that oddsmakers are pessimistic about Philadelphia’s chances to advance in this year’s postseason. As we’ve seen in recent years, though, even the biggest long shots can be worth the wager in this unpredictable postseason market.

This is especially true for this year’s Phillies. FanGraphs released its World Series odds (by percent chance) Thursday, and the Phillies aren’t at the bottom. They’re in the middle of the pack at 6.1%. That math says the Phillies win the World Series about six times in 100 simulations, making the 30/1 price all the more enticing.

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