Blue Jays vs. Phillies prediction: Bet on starting pitchers to dominate early

Philadelphia destroyed Toronto’s bullpen on Tuesday in a high-scoring, 8-4 victory. The Phillies will go for a two-game interleague sweep, setting up our Blue Jays vs. Phillies prediction for Wednesday’s game.

These are two potent offenses, but both teams have their aces on the mound.

I see the latter outplaying the former on Wednesday afternoon in Philly.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel, current at the time of writing and subject to change.

Kevin Gausman is one of the more undervalued pitchers in the game. He hasn’t been able to recreate his lone sub-3.00 ERA season with the Giants, but he has the highest FanGraphs WAR among pitchers since the beginning of last season.

The problem is Gausman’s BABIP, which is .362 during his time as a Blue Jay. That’s obnoxiously high and should be a clear signal for positive regression — specifically, his BABIP should be down around .300, thereby allowing fewer hits.

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For the sake of full disclosure, I’m not entirely sold on Gausman’s regression chances. He throws his four-seam fastball too much, allowing too much hard contact with the pitch, so he could be a high-BABIP pitcher.

However, Gausman’s splitter is one of the best pitches in baseball, with a Whiff rate consistently near 50%. As a result, he strikes out nearly a third of batters faced. He also allows almost no free passes (3.9% walk rate), fueling an uber-low 2.61 FIP.

Zack Wheeler is having a down year, but he’s also been unlucky, sporting a .340 BABIP. Unlike Gausman, Wheeler generally excels at limiting hard contact, so he’s due for positive BABIP regression (career .298 BABIP).

When he’s right, Wheeler does everything well. He consistently boasts a K-BB rate above 20% with a high-90s fastball and a slider that induces a Whiff rate close to 30%.

Regardless, these two pitchers project as high-end starters, with expected ERAs in the low-3.00s. Both strike out a ton of batters, activating one of Bet Labs’ PRO systems:

As long as the home pitcher has a strikeout rate over 23% and the away pitcher has a strikeout rate over 27%, it’s generally profitable to bet the under.

These are two hard-hitting offenses, but the bats are in for a challenge today. So, I’m betting these two starters can hold their own in this interleague match.

Both bullpens were heavily used on Wednesday, so I’d rather avoid the full-game under, instead targeting the first-half under.

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Moneyline: Blue Jays (-108) vs. Phillies (-108)

Spread: Blue Jays -1.5 (+150) vs. Phillies +1.5 (-178)

Total: Over 8.5 (-104) | Under 8.5 (-118)

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