Fade Orioles, pitcher Dean Kremer in matchup with Phillies in Monday’s series opener

The National League Wildcard race is getting crazy. Our Philadelphia Phillies are tied with Miami a half-game behind Arizona and San Francisco for the third Wildcard spot, and Cincinnati has a half-game lead over the field for the top spot.

If you’re counting, that means five teams are vying for three spots, and all are within one game of each other.

Unfortunately for Philly fans, the Phils host the red-hot Baltimore Orioles this week.

However, I think the Phillies can steal this series opener, and I’m willing to back that analysis up with hard-earned cash.

I have to keep betting against Baltimore starting pitcher Dean Kremer.

Betting against him has been painful – the Orioles have won 14 of his 20 starts – but he’s not a good pitcher. I consider him a replacement-level arm with below-average stuff and a disastrous batted-ball profile.

Kremer’s expected ERA is above 5.50. He has a 45.4% Hard-hit rate and a double-digit Barrel rate. All three stats rank among the bottom 15% of qualified starting pitchers.

Kremer’s gotten by mostly on control and a slightly-improved strikeout rate (21.7%). But he doesn’t overpower hitters and is a bad contact manager.

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So, I’m going to keep betting against him.

Meanwhile, I think we can trust Philly starting pitcher Cristopher Sanchez. He’s only thrown 35 innings this season, so it’s a small sample size, but he checks in with a sub-4.00 expected ERA and a rock-solid 1.05 WHIP.

Sanchez’s batted-ball profile is far from immaculate, but he allows fewer line drives (15.5%) and induces more ground balls (54.4%) than Kremer. It’s okay to allow hard contact if it’s on the ground, especially because the Phillies are a solid infield defense (top 10 in Infield Outs Above Average).

The Orioles boast the better lineup and bullpen, but those numbers are shaky. The Phillies have been only 4% worse at run production over the past month (per wRC+), while Baltimore’s bullpen was used heavily over the weekend.

Ultimately, I’m willing to put my money with Sanchez and directly against Kremer, no matter how pain fading Kremer has caused me.

Give me the Phils on the ML this Monday.

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