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Bet on a lot of runs Tuesday when the Yankees and Phillies clash

Expect the offense to be hot and heavy between the Yankees and Phillies in the second game of this series.

The Yankees will try to extend their winning streak to four games Tuesday after pummeling the Phillies, 14-4, in the series opener at Citizens Bank Park.

New York scored nine of its 14 runs via the long ball, as the Bronx Bombers lived up to their name with six home runs in the game.

Aaron Judge and Jazz Chisholm Jr. each hit two dingers, while Ben Rice and Anthony Volpe also contributed home runs.

Chisholm has been a welcome addition to the Yankees since joining the team following a trade with the Marlins.

Giancarlo Stanton is also back with the team after spending over a month on the injury list. With this Yankees offense starting to come together, we could witness another high-scoring affair on Tuesday night.

Yankees analysis

New York has been on an offensive explosion during this winning streak. Even in their most recent defeat, the Yankees still scored seven runs against the Red Sox.

Chisholm’s addition gives New York options because he’s comfortable batting anywhere in the order.

While with the Marlins, Chisholm hit anywhere from leadoff to seventh. He’ll likely hit lower in the order with the Yankees, which is where they’ve largely struggled this season.

Chisholm also offers a threat on the base path for a Yankees team that ranks 29th in stolen bases with 44 this season.

The Yankees are now better equipped to score runs from different parts of their order without being such a top-heavy team.

Since his arrival, New York’s sixth through ninth hitters drove in six runs in back-to-back games.

Phillies analysis

If there were ever a time to expect a response from Philadelphia, you’d have to think this would be the spot following a double-digit loss at home to New York.

The Phillies entered the game with the best run differential in the league, at +114, but that number dropped to +104 as the Yankees surged with a +116 mark.

Philadelphia will get a chance to exact some revenge against Yankees starter Gerrit Cole in the second game of this interleague series.

Cole hasn’t quite been himself this season after missing more than the first two months with elbow inflammation.

The 2023 Cy Young winner is 3-2 with a 5.40 ERA and a 5.53 FIP in seven starts. In his last outing, he allowed six runs on eight hits while giving up three home runs to the Mets.

Philadelphia’s current roster has plenty of experience going up against Cole. In 129 plate appearances, the Phillies are hitting .311 with a .343 wOBA.

The last thing Cole wants to see is an angry Phillies team desperate for any sign of confidence when it steps into the batter’s box.

Yankees vs. Phillies pick

The Yankees will also relish the opportunity to face Phillies starter Aaron Nola. In 134 plate appearances, the Yankees are hitting .250 with a .341 wOBA and a .444 xSLG.

New York has a 12.7% walk rate against Nola, which could lead to some crooked innings early on.

The weather forecast also calls for double-digit wind speeds (10-12mph) blowing out of the park, which could make the conditions a nightmare for both pitchers.

Thus, even with two pitchers with strong resumés on the mound, we have an aggressive total of nine runs for the game.

Given the conditions, I’d expect both offenses to start fast. According to our Action Labs database, the first five totals are 18-10-2 (64.3%) to the over at Citizens Bank Park, with double-digit wind speeds blowing toward the outfield.

After shopping around, BetMGM sportsbook has the best price on over 4.5 runs at -130 odds.

Best Bet: F5 over 4.5 runs (-130)

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