Bet on the Yankees to win Game 1 against the Phillies on Monday

The New York Yankees will wrap up a six-game road trip with three games at Citizens Bank Park against the Phillies.

Although New York is coming off a series win against the Boston Red Sox, it is just 4-5 since the All-Star break. The Phillies have not been much better, as they are just 3-6 since the season resumed.

The Phillies still boast the best record in the majors at 65-40, so they’re likely a heavy favorite against most of the teams they face. However, a closer look might reveal that their odds are somewhat inflated, particularly against a quality team like the Yankees.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. registered a hit, a stolen base, and scored a run in his Yankees debut Sunday as the Bronx Bombers defeated the Red Sox, 8-2.

The former Marlin batted fifth for a Yankees offense that has struggled to generate runs outside the top of its order. Chisholm likely won’t be the only move the Yankees make heading into what should be a busy period before the trade deadline.

New York is still looking to bolster its starting rotation and bullpen. SportsNet New York’s Andy Martino reported that the Yankees are in the market for a corner infielder.

Luis Gil (10-5) will get the start for the Yankees in the series opener. Gil walks 4.19 batters per nine innings, but in his last three starts, hehas allowed just three walks in 17 ⅔ innings.

If Gil can continue to command his pitches better, he could succeed against a Phillies lineup that can sometimes be undisciplined.

According to FanGraphs, the Phillies rank 10th with a chase rate of 29.2% on pitches outside the strike zone.

The Phillies will counter with their best starting pitcher as Zack Wheeler makes his 21st appearance of the year. While Wheeler is 10-4 with a 2.55 ERA, his 3.22 FIP and 3.48 xFIP point to a slight regression.

In his four starts against New York, the Phillies right-hander is 1-1 with a 5.91 ERA in 21⅓ innings. Although Wheeler generally has success with his fastball (41.1%) / sinker (18.6%) combination, the Yankees have feasted on these two pitches this season.

When facing a four-seam fastball, New York ranks fourth in runs above average (+18.6) while posting a league-high +27.9 against a sinker.

On average, the Yankees score 12 more runs than the second-best team against the sinker.

Those numbers could help explain why Wheeler’s ERA against the Yankees is relatively high compared to his 3.37 career mark.

This current Yankees roster has 120 plate appearances against Wheeler, whereas the Phillies have only eight against Gil.

That familiarity could be the difference in this matchup between two teams looking to make a deep run this postseason.

The Phillies are well deserving of the best record in the majors. Their Pythagorean Expectation and +114 run differential align with their 65-40 record.

However, the Yankees are second in run differential (+106), and New York’s Pythagorean Expectation is closer to a 65-42 record. Thus, the Yankees are somewhat undervalued based on their performance this season.

While you must be careful when fading the Phillies, the Yankees are among the few teams you want to have in this situational spot.

According to our Action Labs database, the Phillies are 9-10 after being bet down as an opening favorite with odds between -150 and -200.

With New York being a +125 underdog, we’re getting better than even money in a spot with an implied probability that’s less than 50%.

Based on those numbers, there’s enough data to warrant a play on the visitors as short dogs.

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