James Webb has value to win the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest without Joey Chestnut in the field

With Joey “Jaws” Chestnut banned this year from participating in the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, the 2024 field is, quite frank-ly, wide open.

Here are our best bets for Thursday’s Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest in which contestants compete to see who can down the most dogs (and buns) in 10 minutes.

Since Takeru Kobayashi’s early 2000s reign ended in 2006, there has only been one hot dog-eating winner who was not named Chestnut (16-time winner). That would be 2015 winner Matt Stonie, who is the only person to dethrone Chestnut in the last 17 years.

With Chestnut banned and Stonie retired, the favorite to run away with the mustard yellow belt this year is Geoffrey Esper (-120, DraftKings), with Australian James Webb trailing behind at +200.

Chestnut won’t be inhaling 70-plus hot dogs like he did between 2016 and 2021; however, he still put down more than 60 dogs in 2022 and 2023, which would have made him an obvious favorite to bet on once again.

The man who finished a distant second to Chestnut last year downed 49. That was Esper, who has finished second in each of the past three contests.

Esper has hovered in that 48-51 hot dog range, which should give him an excellent chance at securing the mustard yellow belt in 2024.

Even though the Chestnut-less field has some semblance of parity, it should be a two-man race between Esper and Webb, a 35-year-old from Australia.

Webb is still relatively new to the speed-eating scene, beginning just a few years ago, but his progression from 2022 to 2023 is extremely promising. He plowed through 41 hot dogs in 2022 and took a substantial step forward in 2023, knocking down 47.

At this point in his career, Esper (49 years old) has likely tapped out his hot dog-eating potential, meaning if Webb makes another sizable stride, he could eclipse 50 dogs. That would probably be enough to secure the title in Chestnut’s absence.

Webb has all of the upside and is in his eating prime. He is only now beginning to see how good he can be as a competitive speed eater.

At +200, the value here is with Webb, who estimates he can put down 55 hot dogs on Thursday. Esper’s personal best is 51 hot dogs and buns, so we love plus money on Webb.

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