How much did Milwaukee’s losses impact Phillies’ wild card odds?

What a rollercoaster weekend it was for Philadelphia Phillies fans... and for National League wild card math.

On the heels of getting embarrassingly swept out of Chicago, the Phillies opened a four-game series in Washington with a win to remain ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers for the final playoff spot, but just barely. And with the Brewers hosting Miami over the weekend, any misstep by the Phillies could be costly.

That misstep, of course, came early Saturday afternoon, when the Phillies got spanked, 13-4, by the Nationals. Their magic number remained at five, and there were five games left on the schedule — with a looming trip to Houston against an Astros team that isn’t resting its regulars.

Then came the Marlins. The Phillies won their nightcap in Washington and watched in the clubhouse as Miami came from behind and topped the Brewers. Magic number: three. Sunday, in rain-soaked Washington, the Phillies won again. Meanwhile, nearly 800 miles away, the Marlins did it again. Magic number: one.

With three games left, the Phillies are near-locks to reach the postseason for the first time since 2011. How much so? DraftKings on Monday morning had the Phillies at -2500 to make the playoffs and +1400 to get swept out of Houston and have the Brewers sweep Arizona.

Per FanGraphs, the Phillies are up to 96% to reach the postseason, while Milwaukee is at 4.7%.

But while they’re almost guaranteed to reach the postseason, the Phillies remain unlikely to do anything in the playoffs once they get there, according to oddsmakers. At Caesars, which has the Phillies at +100 in Monday night’s series-opener down in Houston (Aaron Nola vs. Lance McCullers Jr.), the Phillies have the longest odds of any postseason team to win the World Series (+4000). They are +2000 to win the NL.

Sportsbooks do not yet have odds out for the wild card round, as matchups are still being determined. The Phillies are most likely to be in St. Louis when the playoffs begin Friday. Though, if they manage to jump the Padres and get into the second wild card spot (they entered Monday one game back), a first-round date with the Mets would likely be on deck once the Phillies leave Houston.

The Phillies were 4-3 vs. St. Louis this season and 5-14 vs. the Mets.

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