Bank on the over when the Nationals and Phillies meet in Wednesday night’s rubber match

The Philadelphia Phillies blew a late lead on Tuesday night to earn a doubleheader split with the Washington Nationals. They’ll play the rubber match on Wednesday evening, and we have a prediction and pick for the game.

Based on The Action Network’s PRO model projections, we expect a shootout at Citizens Bank Park.

I often struggle to project offenses in the NL East (outside of the Braves, of course).

The Nationals and Phillies (and the Mets) are littered with superstar talent but prone to slumps. We can’t seem to get consistent production from any team in this division.

But the bats should shine Wednesday evening for a few reasons.

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First, the starting pitching matchup.

MacKenzie Gore is a guy I loved betting on in the early season, but he’s seen a drastic decrease in production. He has a 4.76 ERA since the calendar flipped to May.

Gore struggles with his release point, so he also struggles with his command, and things can get ugly when he starts missing his spots. He’s walked 11.3% of batters faced over the past five weeks.

He also relies far too much on his fastball, which he throws nearly 60% of the time.

Meanwhile, Michael Lorenzen is bound to regress. He’s allowed only five earned runs over his past five outings, but he pairs that 1.42 ERA with a 4.09 expected FIP.

Lorenzen is not an elite starting pitcher, and there’s nothing in his underlying statistical profile to suggest this recent surge is more than just random batted-ball luck (.225 BABIP since July 1).

Meanwhile, neither pitcher will have much support. These are two bottom-10 defenses by Defensive Runs Saved, and both bullpens were heavily taxed in yesterday’s doubleheader — the Phillies used their top five bullpen arms, while the Nationals used five of their top six.

Finally, we’re getting beautiful hitting weather at Citizens Bank Park during Wednesday night’s game. With mid-80s temps and a solid breeze out to right field, the ball will fly.

Look out for Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. The two lefties will see a boost with the wind sweeping toward their pull-side, and both homered yesterday (Schwarber went yard twice in Game 1).

The Action Network’s PRO model projects over 9.6 runs for this Wednesday night game, providing us with a considerable edge on the Over 9 (+100) available at BetMGM.

Four of the past five meetings between these two have cashed the over. Bet on more of the same in this one.

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