The Thunder have good value with the second best odds to win the 2025 NBA championship

The Oklahoma City Thunder far exceeded the market’s expectations for them last season, storming through their preseason win total of 44.5, winning 57 games and earning the No. 1 seed in a loaded Western Conference. They then became the youngest team in NBA history to win a playoff series with a starting lineup of players under 25 years old.

While the Thunder went on to lose in the second round, they opened the offseason third in title odds at +850 behind the Celtics and Nuggets. They’ve since surpassed Denver, and their odds continue to climb. They’re now priced at +750 on FanDuel, behind only Boston. Amid a brilliantly executed offseason, the Thunder appear poised for contention.

Odds via FanDuel

The playoff experience should prove invaluable for Oklahoma City’s young talent, especially Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who proved his second-place MVP finish was no fluke. SGA continued to shine on the big stage, averaging 30.2 points per game with an impressive 58.2% true shooting.

However, that playoff experience also exposed some of the team’s weaknesses. It became clear that Josh Giddey, for all his promise as a 21-year-old former lottery pick, was a poor fit with the rest of the team’s young corps. It also became clear that as superb as Chet Holmgren’s rookie season turned out, the team needed reinforcements in the frontcourt.

General manager Sam Presti wasted no time addressing those two roster deficiencies this offseason. First, the Thunder traded Giddey to the Bulls in exchange for Alex Caruso. Caruso finished last year as an All-Defensive guard for two straight seasons, ranked seventh in defensive box plus/minus. One of the most active, precise, and intelligent defenders in the NBA, he also led the league with 3.7 deflections per game.

In addition to his defense, Caruso provides a significant upgrade over Giddey from a shooting standpoint. Giddey hit just 34.6% of his catch-and-shoot 3s last season, while Caruso nailed 40.4% of those looks. Whereas defenses could sag off Giddey on the perimeter to provide help defense elsewhere, they’ll be forced to stay attached to Caruso.

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The Thunder also signed Isaiah Hartenstein to a three-year, $87 million contract. The former Knicks center was an analytical darling last season, ranking in the top 30 in win shares per 48 minutes and box plus/minus. He ranked fourth in offensive rebound percentage and assist ratio among centers, providing two offensive elements the Thunder were missing in the frontcourt.

OKC can be aggressive with signings like Hartenstein, thanks to their current contract situation — Holmgren ($10.8 million) and Jalen Williams ($4.7 million) are still on rookie contracts despite being rising All-NBA-level talents. Gilgeous-Alexander is on a max contract, but nobody else on the team makes more than Luguentz Dort’s $16.5 million.

In addition to financial flexibility, Holmgren allows for lineup flexibility. He is an elite rim protector at 7-foot-1 and with a 7-6 wingspan. However, his mobility is incredibly rare for a player of his size, and his floor-spacing ability on offense (37% from 3 last season) helps support the expected two-bigs lineups with Hartenstein.

Presti rounded out this successful offseason with incredibly team-friendly, long-term extensions for Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins. Both are adept from 3-point range, shooting over 41% from deep last season, and both are still just 25 years old. Cason Wallace is also under contract through the 2026-27 season, and his defensive acuity in the playoffs was exceptional for a 20-year-old rookie.

The Eastern Conference is loaded at the top, with Paul George signing with the 76ers, Mikal Bridges being traded to the Knicks, and the Celtics still possessing the best team in the NBA. Meanwhile, the West has been weakened, primarily with the Nuggets losing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in free agency. OKC is poised to take advantage.

The Thunder are still one of the league’s youngest teams. They have a profound war chest of future draft assets. But the time is now. This roster is loaded with young talent that fits cohesively. Caruso adds to a bounty of shooting and defense, while Hartenstein addresses the team’s rebounding weakness. Gilgeous-Alexander should be firmly in the MVP conversation once again.

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