How does Chet Holmgren’s injury impact the NBA Rookie of the Year odds?

Five days after he hobbled off the court in former NBA player Jamal Crawford’s Pro-Am game, the Oklahoma City Thunder announced that Chet Holmgren, the second overall pick, is out for the upcoming season with a Lisfranc injury in his right foot.

While this news is obviously devastating for the Thunder and NBA fans alike, it immediately impacts the race for the NBA Rookie of the Year (ROY) award.

The earliest odds we saw in this market listed the Magic’s Paolo Banchero (first overall pick) as the favorite at +300. Houston’s Jabari Smith (third overall pick) had the second-shortest odds at +300, while Holmgren was third at +475.

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Banchero’s odds shortening to +200 shouldn’t surprise anyone as the top overall pick. At 6-foot-10 and 250 pounds, he comes into the league with an NBA-ready frame.

Banchero led Duke to the Final Four, averaging 17.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 3.2 assists. And while he only played in two NBA Summer League games, he averaged 20 points, five rebounds, and six assists.

As much as I’m always looking to fade the favorite in these markets, it’ll take quite a performance from the other contenders to keep Banchero from winning Rookie of the Year. He stuffs the stat sheet probably better than any rookie in his class and should walk right into the Magic’s starting lineup.

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Sacramento’s Keegan Murray, picked fourth overall in the draft, is the other player who saw his odds improve. He’s down to +500 after opening at +800.

Murray is a tremendous shooter at 6-foot-8. He averaged 23.5 points and 5.1 rebounds while shooting 40% from behind the three-point line before declaring early for the draft after his sophomore year.

During the summer, the Iowa product led all rookies in scoring with 23.3 points and he once again shot 40% from distance over the four games. He also averaged seven rebounds per game.

And if symmetry is your thing, the previous Rookie of the Year winner, Scottie Barnes, was also selected with the fourth overall pick.

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One player that still has value on the board is Indiana’s, Bennedict Mathurin. Like Murray, Mathurin entered the draft following his sophomore year. He averaged 17.7 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 2.5 assists at Arizona.

At the NBA Summer League, Mathurin finished third among rookies with 19.3 points per game, shooting 39% from behind the three-point line.

The only hindrance I see with Mathurin winning ROY is whether he’ll get enough minutes on the court to challenge the other contenders. Mathurin will likely slot in behind Buddy Hield at shooting guard on the Pacers’ depth chart.

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