Celtics vs. Sixers prediction: Will Philly close out Boston at home in Game 6?

The Philadelphia 76ers certainly have gotten the attention of the Boston Celtics in their Eastern Conference semifinal series.

However, the same cannot be said for NBA oddsmakers.

Despite holding a 3-2 series lead — and despite returning home Thursday with a chance to clinch a spot in the Eastern Conference finals for the first time in 22 years — Philadelphia will take the court as an underdog for the sixth straight time in this matchup.

Will the 76ers prove their many doubters wrong once again in Game 6?

Maybe, maybe not. But we’re done disrespecting a team that’s 7-2 SU and 6-2-1 ATS in the playoffs — a team that’s not only extremely talented but playing with confidence and a huge chip on its shoulder.

Odds updated as of 10:45 a.m. ET on May 11.

Bad call. That’s all we can say about our decision to fade Philadelphia in Tuesday’s Game 5 in Boston.

The 76ers controlled the game pretty much from the opening tap, never trailing after the midpoint of the opening quarter and covering an eight-point spread wire to wire in a 115-103 victory.

Philadelphia has now beaten the Celtics twice in Boston; won with and without its best player on the court (NBA MVP Joel Embiid); and won by margins both narrow (two victories by a total of five points) and big (the 12-point blowout in Game 5).

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On the other hand, since winning the first two games of their opening round series against Atlanta (both at home), the Celtics have played sub-.500 basketball.

They’re 4-5 both overall and against the spread, including three losses as a favorite of 13.5, 10.5 and 8 points.

Boston’s best player — All-Star forward Jayson Tatum — has forgotten how to shoot the basketball; he’s come up empty on 43 of 74 shots in the last four games, going just 7-for-31 from three-point range (22.6%).

Compounding the Celtics’ issues is the fact their defense completely disappears for long stretches. In five playoff losses, they’ve given up 130, 119, 119, 116 and 115 points.

The one positive thing you can say about the Celtics heading into Game 6: They faced a 3-2 series deficit in the second round just last year, and they navigated it with ease.

After losing a Game 5 heartbreaker to Milwaukee at home, Boston hit the road and rolled 108-95 in Game 6, then returned home and cruised 109-81 in Game 7.

But that Celtics team was firing on all cylinders, especially on defense. In the first two rounds last year, Boston gave up 110-plus points just three times in 11 games.

That includes the two lockdown defensive efforts that put away Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks.

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If Tatum rediscovers his shot and the Celtics can get things together defensively, they absolutely can rally from a 3-2 series deficit yet again. It just seems highly unlikely, given that Boston has yielded an average of 114.3 points in its last nine games — and that includes a 121-87 Game 2 beatdown of the 76ers eight days ago.

It also seems unlikely because Embiid has stepped up his game despite not being 100%.

After missing two playoff contests with a knee ligament sprain, the 2022-23 NBA MVP returned to action for Game 2 of this series and looked very rusty, putting up just 15 points and three rebounds in less than 27 minutes.

Embiid’s numbers since: 30 points, 13 rebounds (Game 3 in Boston); 34 points, 13 rebounds (Game 4 at home); and 33 points and seven rebounds (Game 5 in Boston).

Those numbers don’t speak to the job Embiid and his teammates have done defensively. In the last three games, Philadelphia has limited the Celtics to 43.8% shooting overall and 35.4% from downtown — and that’s including the Sixers’ 12-point home loss in Game 3.

Philly also is plus-10 in the rebounding department, including a 49-36 edge in Game 5.

Obviously, beating Boston three straight times isn’t easy — it’s happened on just three occasions all year. And the 76ers are under almost as much pressure as the Celtics on Thursday — Embiid and his crew definitely don’t want to return to Boston for a winner-take-all Game 7.

But again, something appears off about the Celtics right now. At the same time, Embiid’s effort in the last two games seems to have given his teammates a jolt of refuse-to-lose confidence.

And while many will argue that Boston still has the better team, the reality is that the better team doesn’t always win — even in the playoffs.

So we’ll bet on Philadelphia, which is riding a momentum wave after back-to-back wins, to buck the odds one more time against Boston.

Take the 76ers on the moneyline as they secure a spot in the Eastern Conference finals for the first time since 2001.

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