Heat vs. 76ers predictions: Bet low on Joel Embiid and James Harden, high on Jimmy Butler

With three games remaining in the regular season, the Philadelphia 76ers’ playoff position is set: They’re locked into the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference.

Despite having literally nothing to play for, the 76ers’ two big guns — Joel Embiid and James Harden — are slated to play in Thursday’s battle with the Miami Heat at Wells Fargo Center.

How long those big guns will be on the court — especially since both have been dealing with nagging lower-leg injuries — remains to be seen. But the strong possibility that Philadelphia coach Doc Rivers will have a quick hook with his two best players definitely factored into how we’re attacking the 76ers vs. Heat player prop market.

Here are our top three player prop predictions — two involving Embiid and Harden, and one focused on Heat star Jimmy Butler — for this Eastern Conference clash.

Odds updated as of 2:15 p.m. ET on April 6.

Embiid had his best game of what has been his best NBA season Tuesday, going off for 52 points and 13 rebounds in a 103-101 comeback victory at home against the Celtics.

In posting his fifth career 50-point game (and third this season), Embiid went 20-for-25 from the field and scored more than half his team’s points.

So why fade the 7-foot center Thursday? Because he no longer has to put up huge numbers to impress NBA MVP voters. After Tuesday’s remarkable performance, the MVP race is over: Embiid is finally going to win it.

The proof can be found on the NBA MVP odds board: Heading into the game against Boston, Embiid was anywhere from -200 to -275 to win the award. Now? His odds range from -1000 to -1400.

Is it possible Embiid wants to post another monster stat line against Miami and put an unbreakable lock on the MVP door he slammed shut Tuesday night? Sure. But given Philadelphia’s ultimate goal (ending a 40-year NBA title drought) — and given Embiid’s seemingly never-ending health issues — it makes no sense for the big man to play extended minutes Thursday.

And even if Embiid does inexplicably go the distance in this one, there’s no guarantee he’ll score a bunch of points.

In the last six games he’s played against Miami — two this season, four in last year’s playoffs — Embiid averaged just 21.3 points. Number of times he tallied more than 25 points in those six contests: Once (he had 27 in a 101-99 home loss on Feb. 27).

Also, in his last four games prior to Tuesday’s 52-point outburst, Embiid had scored 28, 25, 25 and 28 points.

» READ MORE: 76ers vs. Heat prediction: Bet the under when these two Eastern Conference teams meet Thursday

Harden has played in four straight games since missing four in a row with left Achilles soreness.

The 2017-18 NBA MVP played between 37 and 40 minutes in three of the games and 34 minutes in the other. His combined points and assist totals during this stretch: 27, 24, 18 and 30.

The latter — 20 points, 10 assists — came in Tuesday’s game against the Celtics, in which Harden clocked 40 minutes.

Again, as with Embiid, we expect Harden to play reduced minutes against the Heat. However, it’s possible he’s on the court a bit longer because fellow guard Tyrese Maxey (neck) is questionable.

Even if that ends up being the case, we’re still confident that Harden will struggle to clear this prop number. Not only has he failed to do it in four games since his return from injury, but he’s failed to do it in his last six games and seven of his last nine — despite playing at least 31 minutes in every contest.

Also, Harden was in uniform for consecutive games against the Heat on Feb. 27 and March 1. His stats from those two: 20 points, 12 assists in 39 minutes, and 23 points and five assists in 36½ minutes.

So he barely got over the 30.5 mark in the former game, and needed 39 minutes to do so.

As with Embiid’s points prop, this one smells like a dead Under.

Unlike the 76ers, Miami has a lot to play for Thursday night.

The Heat are sitting in the seventh spot in the Eastern Conference standings, 1.5 games behind Brooklyn. Because tiebreaker scenarios favor the Nets, Miami has to finish with a better record than Brooklyn to earn the No. 6 seed — and thus get out of play-in tournament land.

To make that happen, the Heat essentially need to win their final three games — starting Thursday against the Sixers. The only way they do that? If Butler takes his game to the next level and delivers like the six-time All-Star he is.

The veteran forward certainly delivered in his last two games, going for 35 points, three assists and 12 rebounds in a seven-point home win over Dallas and 27 points, eight rebounds and eight assists in a 13-point rout at Detroit.

Butler has nearly beaten this points/rebounds prop number with just his scoring output over the past month. He’s tallied 24-plus points in 11 of his last 13 contests.

Throw in his up-and-down rebounding numbers, and Butler topped 29.5 combined points and boards in all 11 games. And he’s done it in 14 of 18 contests going back to Feb. 25.

Admittedly, one of the four exceptions was against the 76ers on March 1 — he had 16 points and three rebounds. But he only played 27 minutes, as the Heat got blasted 119-96.

Two nights earlier in Philadelphia, though, Butler had 23 points and 11 rebounds (plus nine assists) and hit the game-winning shot in a 101-99 victory.

Look for a similar performance from Butler on Thursday, as we don’t see the Heat getting dusted in a game that’s far more important to them than it is to their opponent.

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