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Heat vs. Knicks prediction: Two player props to target for Game 2

With a lower-scoring contest likely in Game 2 between the Heat and Knicks, find out which players we're fading in the props market.

Obi Toppin of the New York Knicks talks to fans before the start of the fourth quarter against the Cleveland Cavaliers during Game Four of the Eastern Conference First Round Playoffs at Madison Square Garden on April 23, 2023 in New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
Obi Toppin of the New York Knicks talks to fans before the start of the fourth quarter against the Cleveland Cavaliers during Game Four of the Eastern Conference First Round Playoffs at Madison Square Garden on April 23, 2023 in New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)Read moreElsa / Getty Images
    by Michael Arinze, Action Network
    Published 

It’s Game 2 of the NBA Eastern Conference semifinals, and we have Heat vs. Knicks predictions in the player props market.

This is an interesting handicap because both teams are dealing with injuries to key players. Miami’s Jimmy Butler is questionable with an ankle sprain, while New York’s Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle continue to nurse ankle injuries.

Given the uncertainty and status of those players, we’ve seen the total drop as low as 206.5 after opening at 210.5.

In this preview, I’ll share why bettors should be mindful of that correlation when targeting player props.

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Heat vs. Knicks prop: Obi Toppin under 17.5 points + rebounds + assists (-135 at BetMGM)

You might be wondering why we’re fading Toppin in this spot, given that he’s coming off a decent outing with 18 points and eight rebounds in Game 1.

He saw a massive bump in playing time with 31 minutes in the game after not playing more than 22 minutes in any game during the previous series. His best performance was a 12-point effort with two rebounds.

The thing with Toppin is that he’s much more of a volume player in that he needs minutes on the court before he gets going. And with the Knicks ceding the home-court advantage to the Heat, there’s a greater need to get Randle back on the court if he can play.

That would mean Toppin heads back to the bench in a reserve role. Hence, if we’re projecting a reduction in his minutes, playing the under in this prop makes a ton of sense.

» READ MORE: Lakers vs. Warriors prediction: Grab the points with Los Angeles in San Francisco in Game 1

Heat vs. Knicks prop: Haywood Highsmith under 5.5 points + rebounds (-125 at BetMGM)

Although this prop is unlikely to garner much attention, winning tickets receive the same grade, even if they might not be as popular.

Highsmith is another player carrying an injury as he’s dealing with tendinitis in his left knee. After averaging roughly 18 minutes during the regular season, he’s down to under eight minutes per game in the playoffs.

And given that Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra is already going with a shorter rotation, it wouldn’t surprise me if Highsmith continues to see his minutes dwindle as he battles the tendinitis.

If this game is played slower, Miami can afford to go even longer with its starters. One player that would block Highsmith’s path for more playing time is Caleb Martin.

Martin can sometimes disappear, but Spoelstra has shown faith in the Nevada forward as he led the bench with 31 minutes in Game 1.

Thus, after Highsmith averaged just four minutes over the past two games, I don’t envision a scenario where he is on the court long enough to go over this prop.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

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