Lakers vs. Nuggets prediction: Jokic will be too much for L.A. in Game 1

The Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets have gotten off to solid starts in each of their first two playoff series.

While Los Angeles scored series-opening road upsets at Memphis and Golden State, the Nuggets destroyed Minnesota and Phoenix by a combined 47 points in a pair of Game 1 victories as a home favorite.

So what happens in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals Tuesday when the Lakers take the court as a road underdog in Denver?

Our wagering recommendation leans not toward another series-opening upset for Los Angeles but rather another lopsided Game 1 victory for the host Nuggets.

Odds updated as of 12:15 p.m. ET on May 16.

In handicapping this intriguing best-of-7 series, it’s tempting to start by analyzing the four head-to-head regular season meetings.

Don’t bother, as those results are utterly meaningless.

The reason: These squads last faced each other on Jan. 9. Not only was that more than four months ago, but the Lakers team that took the court in Denver that day and got drubbed 122-109 isn’t the same Lakers team that will take the court in Denver on Tuesday night.

Some six weeks after that fourth and final meeting, Los Angeles totally revamped its roster through a series of moves around the NBA trade deadline.

It’s safe to say those moves paid off, as the Lakers went from playoff afterthought to NBA play-in winner to the Western Conference finals.

So there’s nothing to glean from the four Nuggets-Lakers regular season matchups (including the fact that the home team won and covered all four).

What led us to side with Denver in Game 1 then? Two words: Nikola Jokic.

» READ MORE: NBA championship odds: Celtics are clear-cut favorites to win it all

The 2021 and 2022 MVP (and 2023 runner-up) has been an unstoppable force in the postseason.

After averaging 26.2 points, 12.4 rebounds and 9.0 assists in five games against the Timberwolves in the first round, Jokic put up 34.5 points, 13.2 rebounds and 10.3 assists in six games against the Suns.

In those 11 combined contests, Jokic has 10 double-doubles and five triple-doubles (three against Phoenix).

The 6-foot-11 center has been particularly dominant in front of the home crowd lately, too. The numbers:

Not only are the Nuggets 6-for-6 at home in the postseason, they’ve been tested just once — they edged Minnesota 112-109 as a 10-point home favorite in the decisive Game 5.

The other five victories were by 9, 18, 10 and 16 points.

What about the fact Los Angeles stole Game 1 both in Memphis and Golden State? Impressive, but the Grizzlies and Warriors were flawed teams; the Nuggets are not.

Plus, the Lakers had four days off prior to the opener at Golden State, while the Warriors were only 48 hours removed from a pressure-packed Game 7 victory at Sacramento.

This time, Los Angeles is facing a team that has had one extra day of rest — and a team comfortable playing at mile-high altitude. That latter part is significant, because the Lakers’ first 13 playoff games were contested in three cities — L.A., Memphis and San Francisco — that are barely above sea level.

So as much as we’re betting on the Lakers having no reasonable answer for Jokic in Game 1, we’re also betting on their legs — particularly those of 38-year-old LeBron James — giving out in the second half.

To that point, look for Denver to bust open a close game after halftime, take a comfortable double-digit lead into the fourth quarter and cruise to another Game 1 victory and spread cover.

» READ MORE: Lakers vs. Nuggets prediction: Bet on a lengthy Western Conference finals

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